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The spillover effects of target interest rate news from the U.S. Fed and the European Central Bank on the Asia-Pacific stock markets

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  • Suk-Joong, Kim
  • Do Quoc Tho, Nguyen

Abstract

This paper provides comprehensive evidence on the spillover effects of the U.S. Fed’s and the European Central Bank (ECB)’s target interest rate news on the market returns and return volatilities of 12 stock markets in the Asia-Pacific over the period 1999–2006. The news spillover effects on the returns are generally consistent with the literature where amajority of stock markets shows significant negative returns in response to unexpected rate rises. While the results of the speed of adjustment for the Fed’s news are mixed across the markets, the ECB news was absorbed slowly, in general. The return volatilities were higher in response to the interest rate news from both sources. In addition, both the Fed and the ECB news elicited tardy or persisting volatility responses. These findings have important implications for all levels of market participants in the Asia-Pacific stock markets.

Suggested Citation

  • Suk-Joong, Kim & Do Quoc Tho, Nguyen, 2008. "The spillover effects of target interest rate news from the U.S. Fed and the European Central Bank on the Asia-Pacific stock markets," MPRA Paper 17213, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:17213
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    2. Zhang, Hongwei & Jin, Chen & Bouri, Elie & Gao, Wang & Xu, Yahua, 2023. "Realized higher-order moments spillovers between commodity and stock markets: Evidence from China," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 30(C).
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    6. Tho D.Q. Nguyen & Jian Wu, 2010. "Spillover impacts of the US macroeconomic news: Australian sectoral perspective," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 30(3), pages 1753-1771.
    7. Krieger, Kevin & Mauck, Nathan & Vazquez, Joseph, 2015. "Comparing U.S. and European market volatility responses to interest rate policy announcements," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 127-136.
    8. Nihar Shah, 2022. "Doubly heterogeneous monetary spillovers," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(2), pages 126-150, August.
    9. Riza Demirer & Asli Yuksel & Aydin Yuksel, 2020. "The U.S. term structure and return volatility in emerging stock markets," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 44(4), pages 687-707, October.
    10. Yang, Lu & Hamori, Shigeyuki, 2014. "Spillover effect of US monetary policy to ASEAN stock markets: Evidence from Indonesia, Singapore, and Thailand," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 145-155.
    11. ERER, Elif & ERER, Deniz, 2017. "Long Memory In Turkish Stock Market And Effects Of Central Banks’ Announcements," Studii Financiare (Financial Studies), Centre of Financial and Monetary Research "Victor Slavescu", vol. 21(3), pages 6-18.
    12. Kishor, N. Kundan & Marfatia, Hardik A., 2013. "The time-varying response of foreign stock markets to U.S. monetary policy surprises: Evidence from the Federal funds futures market," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 1-24.
    13. Jonathan Kearns & Andreas Schrimpf & Fan Dora Xia, 2023. "Explaining Monetary Spillovers: The Matrix Reloaded," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 55(6), pages 1535-1568, September.
    14. Shah, Adil Ahmad & Dar, Arif Billah & Bhanumurthy, N.R., 2021. "Are precious metals and equities immune to monetary and fiscal policy uncertainties?," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    15. Bosupeng, Mpho, 2015. "The Impossible Trinity and Financial Markets – An Examination of Inflation Volatility Spillovers," MPRA Paper 77923, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2015.
    16. Riza Demirer & Rangan Gupta & Asli Yuksel & Aydin Yuksel, 2020. "The US Term Structure and Return Volatility in Global REIT Markets," Advances in Decision Sciences, Asia University, Taiwan, vol. 24(3), pages 84-109, September.
    17. Ansari, Md Gyasuddin & Sensarma, Rudra, 2019. "US monetary policy, oil and gold prices: Which has a greater impact on BRICS stock markets?," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 130-151.
    18. Babajide Abiola Ayopo & Lawal Adedoyin Isola & Somoye Russel Olukayode, 2016. "Stock Market Response to Economic Growth and Interest Rate Volatility: Evidence from Nigeria," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 6(1), pages 354-360.
    19. Nguyen, Dat Thanh & Phan, Dinh Hoang Bach & Anglingkusumo, Reza & Sasongko, Aryo, 2021. "US government shutdowns and Indonesian stock market," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    20. Pennings, Steven & Ramayandi, Arief & Tang, Hsiao Chink, 2015. "The impact of monetary policy on financial markets in small open economies: More or less effective during the global financial crisis?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 60-70.
    21. Daniel Agyapong, 2014. "Macroeconomic Spillover and Single Currency Adoption: An Inter-regional Analysis," SPOUDAI Journal of Economics and Business, SPOUDAI Journal of Economics and Business, University of Piraeus, vol. 64(3), pages 73-93, July-Sept.
    22. Othman, Arshad Nuval & Masih, Mansur, 2014. "The different impact of conventional interest rates on Islamic stock market, Islamic banking and Islamic insurance: evidence from Malaysia," MPRA Paper 63285, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    23. R. Eki Rahman & Ermawati, 2020. "An Analysis Of Herding Behavior In The Stock Market: A Case Study Of The Asean-5 And The United States," Bulletin of Monetary Economics and Banking, Bank Indonesia, vol. 23(3), pages 297-318, October.
    24. Sun, Xinxin & Lu, Xinsheng & Yue, Gongzheng & Li, Jianfeng, 2017. "Cross-correlations between the US monetary policy, US dollar index and crude oil market," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 467(C), pages 326-344.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Target interest rate news; Spillover effects; U.S. Fed; ECB;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy

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