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Does Central Bank Transparency and Communication Affect Financial and Macroeconomic Forecasts?

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  • Lustenberger, Thomas
  • Rossi, Enzo

Abstract

In a large sample of countries across different geographic regions and over a long period of time, we find limited country- and variable-specific effects of central bank transparency on forecast accuracy and their dispersion among a large set of professional forecasts of financial and macroeconomic variables. More communication even increases forecast errors and dispersion.

Suggested Citation

  • Lustenberger, Thomas & Rossi, Enzo, 2018. "Does Central Bank Transparency and Communication Affect Financial and Macroeconomic Forecasts?," Working papers 2018/06, Faculty of Business and Economics - University of Basel.
  • Handle: RePEc:bsl:wpaper:2018/06
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Alan S. Blinder & Michael Ehrmann & Marcel Fratzscher & Jakob De Haan & David-Jan Jansen, 2008. "Central Bank Communication and Monetary Policy: A Survey of Theory and Evidence," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 46(4), pages 910-945, December.
    2. Alan Blinder & Michael Ehrmann & Jakob de Haan & David-Jan Jansen, 2017. "Necessity as the mother of invention: monetary policy after the crisis," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 32(92), pages 707-755.
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    4. Neuenkirch, Matthias, 2013. "Central bank transparency and financial market expectations: The case of emerging markets," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 37(4), pages 598-609.
    5. Michael Ehrmann & Sylvester Eijffinger & Marcel Fratzscher, 2012. "The Role of Central Bank Transparency for Guiding Private Sector Forecasts," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 114(3), pages 1018-1052, September.
    6. Swanson, Eric T., 2006. "Have Increases in Federal Reserve Transparency Improved Private Sector Interest Rate Forecasts?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 38(3), pages 791-819, April.
    7. Gill Hammond, 2012. "State of the art of inflation targeting," Handbooks, Centre for Central Banking Studies, Bank of England, edition 4, number 29, March.
    8. Kuttner, Kenneth N., 2001. "Monetary policy surprises and interest rates: Evidence from the Fed funds futures market," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(3), pages 523-544, June.
    9. Crowe, Christopher, 2010. "Testing the transparency benefits of inflation targeting: Evidence from private sector forecasts," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(2), pages 226-232, March.
    10. Guido Lorenzoni, 2010. "Optimal Monetary Policy with Uncertain Fundamentals and Dispersed Information ," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 77(1), pages 305-338.
    11. Cukierman, Alex & Meltzer, Allan H, 1986. "A Theory of Ambiguity, Credibility, and Inflation under Discretion and Asymmetric Information," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 54(5), pages 1099-1128, September.
    12. M. Middeldorp, 2011. "Central Bank Transparency, the Accuracy of Professional Forecasts, and Interest Rate Volatility," Working Papers 11-12, Utrecht School of Economics.
    13. Thomas Lustenberger & Enzo Rossi, 2017. "The Social Value of Information: A Test of a Beauty and Non-Beauty Contest," Working Papers 2017-17, Swiss National Bank.
    14. Lange, Joe & Sack, Brian & Whitesell, William, 2003. " Anticipations of Monetary Policy in Financial Markets," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 35(6), pages 889-909, December.
    15. repec:pri:cepsud:161blinder is not listed on IDEAS
    16. Anna Naszodi & Csaba Csavas & Daniel Felcser, 2016. "Which Aspects of Central Bank Transparency Matter? A Comprehensive Analysis of the Effect of Transparency of Survey Forecasts," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 12(4), pages 147-192, December.
    17. Ranaldo, Angelo & Rossi, Enzo, 2010. "The reaction of asset markets to Swiss National Bank communication," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 486-503, April.
    18. Blinder, Alan S & Morgan, John, 2005. "Are Two Heads Better than One? Monetary Policy by Committee," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 37(5), pages 789-811, October.
    19. Dreher, Axel & Sturm, Jan-Egbert & Haan, Jakob de, 2010. "When is a central bank governor replaced? Evidence based on a new data set," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 766-781, September.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Romain Baeriswyl & Camille Cornand & Bruno Ziliotto, 2016. "Observing and shaping the market: the dilemma of central banks," Working Papers 1623, Groupe d'Analyse et de Théorie Economique Lyon St-Étienne (GATE Lyon St-Étienne), Université de Lyon.
    2. Thomas Lustenberger & Enzo Rossi, 2017. "The Social Value of Information: A Test of a Beauty and Non-Beauty Contest," Working Papers 2017-17, Swiss National Bank.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Central bank transparency; central bank communication; central bank independence; inflation targeting; forward guidance; macroeconomic forecasts; financial forecasts; panel data models with truncated data;

    JEL classification:

    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • D8 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty

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