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How Do Central Bank Projections and Forward Guidance Influence Private-Sector Forecasts?

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  • Monica Jain
  • Christopher S. Sutherland

Abstract

We construct a 23-country panel data set to consider the effect of central bank projections and forward guidance on private-sector forecast disagreement. We find that central bank projections and forward guidance matter mainly for private-sector forecast disagreement surrounding upcoming policy rate decisions and matter less for private-sector macroeconomic forecasts. Further, neither central banks’ provision of policy rate path projections nor their choice of policy rate assumption used in their macroeconomic projections appear to matter much for private-sector forecast disagreement.

Suggested Citation

  • Monica Jain & Christopher S. Sutherland, 2018. "How Do Central Bank Projections and Forward Guidance Influence Private-Sector Forecasts?," Staff Working Papers 18-2, Bank of Canada.
  • Handle: RePEc:bca:bocawp:18-2
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    Cited by:

    1. Boris Hofmann & Dora Xia, 2022. "Quantitative forward guidance through interest rate projections," BIS Working Papers 1009, Bank for International Settlements.
    2. Kryvtsov, Oleksiy & Petersen, Luba, 2021. "Central bank communication that works: Lessons from lab experiments," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 760-780.
    3. Ehrmann, Michael & Holton, Sarah & Kedan, Danielle & Phelan, Gillian, 2021. "Monetary Policy Communication: Perspectives from Former Policy Makers at the ECB," CEPR Discussion Papers 16816, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    4. Jakub Rybacki, 2019. "Forward guidance and the private forecast disagreement – case of Poland," Bank i Kredyt, Narodowy Bank Polski, vol. 50(4), pages 411-428.
    5. Fatemeh Mokhtarzadeh & Luba Petersen, 2021. "Coordinating expectations through central bank projections," Experimental Economics, Springer;Economic Science Association, vol. 24(3), pages 883-918, September.
    6. Rholes, Ryan & Petersen, Luba, 2021. "Should central banks communicate uncertainty in their projections?," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 183(C), pages 320-341.
    7. Christopher S. Sutherland, 2020. "Forward Guidance and Expectation Formation: A Narrative Approach," Staff Working Papers 20-40, Bank of Canada.
    8. Ryan Rholes & Luba Petersen, 2020. "Should central banks communicate uncertainty in their projections?," Discussion Papers dp20-01, Department of Economics, Simon Fraser University.
    9. Moritz Grebe & Peter Tillmann, 2022. "Household Expectations and Dissent Among Policymakers," MAGKS Papers on Economics 202226, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
    10. Grahame Johnson & Sharon Kozicki & Romanos Priftis & Lena Suchanek & Jonathan Witmer & Jing Yang, 2020. "Implementation and Effectiveness of Extended Monetary Policy Tools: Lessons from the Literature," Discussion Papers 2020-16, Bank of Canada.
    11. Emilian DOBRESCU, 2020. "Self-fulfillment degree of economic expectations within an integrated space: The European Union case study," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(4), pages 5-32, December.
    12. Jakub Rybacki, 2019. "Does Forward Guidance Matter in Small Open Economies? Examples from Europe," Econometric Research in Finance, SGH Warsaw School of Economics, Collegium of Economic Analysis, vol. 4(1), pages 1-26, June.
    13. Jeffrey R. Campbell & Thomas B. King & Anna Orlik & Rebecca Zarutskie, 2020. "Issues Regarding the Use of the Policy Rate Tool," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2020-070, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Central bank research; Inflation targets; Monetary Policy; Monetary policy communications; Transmission of monetary policy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D83 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Search; Learning; Information and Knowledge; Communication; Belief; Unawareness
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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