The empirical (ir)relevance of the interest rate assumption for central bank forecasts
Download full text from publisher
Other versions of this item:
- Knüppel, Malte & Schultefrankenfeld, Guido, 2013. "The Empirical (Ir)Relevance of the Interest Rate Assumption for Central Bank Forecasts," Annual Conference 2013 (Duesseldorf): Competition Policy and Regulation in a Global Economic Order 80042, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
References listed on IDEAS
- Gneiting, Tilmann, 2011. "Making and Evaluating Point Forecasts," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 106(494), pages 746-762.
- Raffaella Giacomini & Halbert White, 2006.
"Tests of Conditional Predictive Ability,"
Econometric Society, vol. 74(6), pages 1545-1578, November.
- Raffaella Giacomini & Halbert White, 2003. "Tests of conditional predictive ability," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 572, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Giacomini, Raffaella & White, Halbert, 2003. "Tests of Conditional Predictive Ability," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series qt5jk0j5jh, Department of Economics, UC San Diego.
- Raffaella Giacomini & Halbert White, 2003. "Tests of Conditional Predictive Ability," Econometrics 0308001, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Leeper, Eric M. & Zha, Tao, 2003.
"Modest policy interventions,"
Journal of Monetary Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 50(8), pages 1673-1700, November.
- Eric M. Leeper & Tao Zha, 1999. "Modest policy interventions," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 99-22, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
- Eric M. Leeper & Tao Zha, 2002. "Modest Policy Interventions," NBER Working Papers 9192, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Eric M. Leeper & Tao Zha, 2003. "Modest policy interventions," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2003-24, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
- Eric M. Leeper & Tao Zha, 2002. "Modest policy interventions," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2002-19, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
- Stefan Laséen & Lars E.O. Svensson, 2011.
"Anticipated Alternative policy Rate Paths in Plicy Simulations,"
International Journal of Central Banking,
International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 7(3), pages 1-35, September.
- Laséen, Stefan & Svensson, Lars E.O., 2011. "Anticipated Alternative Policy-Rate Paths in Policy Simulations," Working Paper Series 248, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
- Nicola Anderson & John Sleath, 2001. "New estimates of the UK real and nominal yield curves," Bank of England working papers 126, Bank of England.
- Antonello D'Agostino & Domenico Giannone & Paolo Surico, 2005.
"(Un)Predictability and Macroeconomic Stability,"
0510024, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- D'Agostino, Antonello & Domenico, Giannone & Surico, Paolo, 2006. "(Un)Predictability and Macroeconomic Stability," Research Technical Papers 5/RT/06, Central Bank of Ireland.
- Surico, Paolo & Giannone, Domenico & D'Agostino, Antonello, 2006. "(Un)Predictability and macroeconomic stability," Working Paper Series 605, European Central Bank.
- D'Agostino, Antonello & Giannone, Domenico & Surico, Paolo, 2007. "(Un)Predictability and Macroeconomic Stability," CEPR Discussion Papers 6594, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Charles Goodhart, 2009. "The Interest Rate Conditioning Assumption," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 5(2), pages 85-108, June.
- Galí, Jordi, 2011. "Are central banks' projections meaningful?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(6), pages 537-550.
- Tim Hampton, 2002. "The role of the Reserve Bank's macro model in the formation of interest rate projections," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Bulletin, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, vol. 65, June.
- Lutkepohl, Helmut, 1981. "A model for non-negative and non-positive distributed lag functions," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 211-219, June.
- Malin Adolfson & Stefan Laséen & Jesper Lindé & Mattias Villani, 2005. "Are Constant Interest Rate Forecasts Modest Policy Interventions? Evidence from a Dynamic Open-Economy Model," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 8(3), pages 509-544, December.
- Gneiting, Tilmann & Raftery, Adrian E., 2007. "Strictly Proper Scoring Rules, Prediction, and Estimation," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 102, pages 359-378, March.
- Christoffel, Kai & Coenen, Gunter & Warne, Anders, 2007. "Conditional versus unconditional forecasting with the New Area-Wide Model of the euro area," MPRA Paper 76759, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Faust, Jon & Wright, Jonathan H., 2008. "Efficient forecast tests for conditional policy forecasts," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 146(2), pages 293-303, October.
- Harvey, David & Leybourne, Stephen & Newbold, Paul, 1997. "Testing the equality of prediction mean squared errors," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 281-291, June.
- Stephen Morris & Hyun Song Shin, 2002. "Social Value of Public Information," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(5), pages 1521-1534, December.
- Refet S. Gürkaynak, 2005. "Using federal funds futures contracts for monetary policy analysis," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2005-29, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (US).
- James Mitchell & Kenneth F. Wallis, 2011. "Evaluating density forecasts: forecast combinations, model mixtures, calibration and sharpness," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(6), pages 1023-1040, September.
- Rochelle M. Edge & Refet S. Gurkaynak, 2010.
"How Useful Are Estimated DSGE Model Forecasts for Central Bankers?,"
Brookings Papers on Economic Activity,
Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 41(2 (Fall)), pages 209-259.
- Edge, Rochelle M & Gürkaynak, Refet S., 2010. "How Useful Are Estimated DSGE Model Forecasts for Central Bankers?," CEPR Discussion Papers 8158, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- David L. Reifschneider & Peter Tulip, 2007. "Gauging the uncertainty of the economic outlook from historical forecasting errors," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2007-60, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (US).
CitationsCitations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
- repec:spr:empeco:v:53:y:2017:i:1:d:10.1007_s00181-016-1182-5 is not listed on IDEAS
- Otmar Issing, 2013. "A New Paradigm for Monetary Policy?," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 16(2), pages 273-288, June.
- Issing, Otmar, 2013. "A new paradigm for monetary policy?," CFS Working Paper Series 2013/02, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
More about this item
KeywordsForecast Accuracy; Density Forecasts; Projections;
- C12 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Hypothesis Testing: General
- C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
NEP fieldsThis paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2013-04-27 (All new papers)
- NEP-CBA-2013-04-27 (Central Banking)
- NEP-FOR-2013-04-27 (Forecasting)
- NEP-MON-2013-04-27 (Monetary Economics)
StatisticsAccess and download statistics
All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:zbw:bubdps:112013. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/dbbgvde.html .
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.