IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/zbw/sfb649/sfb649dp2010-062.html

The Norges Bank's key rate projections and the news element of monetary policy: A wavelet based jump detection approach

Author

Listed:
  • Winkelmann, Lars

Abstract

This paper investigates the information content of the Norges Bank's key rate projections. Wavelet spectrum estimates provide the basis for estimating jump probabilities of short- and long-term interest rates on monetary policy announcement days before and after the introduction of key rate projections. The behavior of short-term interest rates reveals that key rate projections have only little effects on market's forecasting ability of current target rate changes. In contrast, longer-term interest rates indicate that the announcement of key rate projections has significantly reduced market participants' revisions of the expected future policy path. Therefore, the announcement of key rate projections further improves central bank communication.

Suggested Citation

  • Winkelmann, Lars, 2010. "The Norges Bank's key rate projections and the news element of monetary policy: A wavelet based jump detection approach," SFB 649 Discussion Papers 2010-062, Humboldt University Berlin, Collaborative Research Center 649: Economic Risk.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:sfb649:sfb649dp2010-062
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/56654/1/642532141.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Alan S. Blinder & Michael Ehrmann & Marcel Fratzscher & Jakob De Haan & David-Jan Jansen, 2008. "Central Bank Communication and Monetary Policy: A Survey of Theory and Evidence," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 46(4), pages 910-945, December.
    2. Frederic S Mishkin, 2004. "Can Central Bank Transparency Go Too Far?," RBA Annual Conference Volume (Discontinued), in: Christopher Kent & Simon Guttmann (ed.),The Future of Inflation Targeting, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    3. Richhild Moessner & William R. Nelson, 2008. "Central Bank Policy Rate Guidance and Financial Market Functioning," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 4(4), pages 193-226, December.
    4. Das, Sanjiv R., 2002. "The surprise element: jumps in interest rates," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 106(1), pages 27-65, January.
    5. C.J.M. Kool & S. Rosenkranz & M. Middeldorp, 2007. "Listening Without Understanding: Central Bank Transparency, Financial Markets and the Crowding Out of Private Information," Working Papers 07-19, Utrecht School of Economics.
    6. Kuttner, Kenneth N., 2001. "Monetary policy surprises and interest rates: Evidence from the Fed funds futures market," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(3), pages 523-544, June.
    7. Alan S. Blinder & Michael Ehrmann & Marcel Fratzscher & Jakob De Haan & David-Jan Jansen, 2008. "Central Bank Communication and Monetary Policy: A Survey of Theory and Evidence," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 46(4), pages 910-945, December.
    8. Refet S Gürkaynak & Brian Sack & Eric Swanson, 2005. "Do Actions Speak Louder Than Words? The Response of Asset Prices to Monetary Policy Actions and Statements," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 1(1), May.
    9. Fan, Jianqing & Wang, Yazhen, 2007. "Multi-Scale Jump and Volatility Analysis for High-Frequency Financial Data," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 102, pages 1349-1362, December.
    10. Baqaee, David, 2010. "Using wavelets to measure core inflation: The case of New Zealand," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(3), pages 241-255, December.
    11. G. P. Nason & R. Von Sachs & G. Kroisandt, 2000. "Wavelet processes and adaptive estimation of the evolutionary wavelet spectrum," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 62(2), pages 271-292.
    12. repec:pri:cepsud:161blinder is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Jan F. Qvigstad, 2006. "When does an interest rate path “look good”? Criteria for an appropriate future interest rate path," Working Paper 2006/05, Norges Bank.
    14. Michael Woodford, 2005. "Central bank communication and policy effectiveness," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Aug, pages 399-474.
    15. Michael Ehrmann & Marcel Fratzscher, 2007. "Transparency, Disclosure, and the Federal Reserve," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 3(1), pages 179-225, March.
    16. Magnus Andersson, 2010. "Using Intraday Data to Gauge Financial Market Responses to Federal Reserve and ECB Monetary Policy Decisions," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 6(2), pages 117-146, June.
    17. Dungey, Mardi & McKenzie, Michael & Smith, L. Vanessa, 2009. "Empirical evidence on jumps in the term structure of the US Treasury Market," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 430-445, June.
    18. Rua, António & Nunes, Luís C., 2009. "International comovement of stock market returns: A wavelet analysis," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(4), pages 632-639, September.
    19. Paolo Zagaglia, 2009. "Fractional integration of inflation rates: a note," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(11), pages 1103-1105.
    20. Andersson, Magnus & Hofmann, Boris, 2009. "Gauging the effectiveness of quantitative forward guidance: evidence from three inflation targeters," Working Paper Series 1098, European Central Bank.
    21. Fryzlewicz, Piotr & Nason, Guy P., 2006. "Haar-Fisz estimation of evolutionary wavelet spectra," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 25227, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    22. Monika Piazzesi, 2005. "Bond Yields and the Federal Reserve," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 113(2), pages 311-344, April.
    23. Piotr Fryzlewicz & Guy P. Nason, 2006. "Haar–Fisz estimation of evolutionary wavelet spectra," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 68(4), pages 611-634, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Gunda-Alexandra Detmers & Dieter Nautz, 2012. "The Information Content of Central Bank Interest Rate Projections: Evidence from New Zealand," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 88(282), pages 323-329, September.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Winkelmann, Lars, 2013. "Quantitative forward guidance and the predictability of monetary policy: A wavelet based jump detection approach," SFB 649 Discussion Papers 2013-016, Humboldt University Berlin, Collaborative Research Center 649: Economic Risk.
    2. repec:hum:wpaper:sfb649dp2013-016 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Smales, L.A. & Apergis, N., 2017. "Does more complex language in FOMC decisions impact financial markets?," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 171-189.
    4. Paul Hubert & Fabien Labondance, 2016. "The Effect of ECB Forward Guidance on Policy Expectations," Working Papers hal-01394821, HAL.
    5. Trunin, Pavel (Трунин, Павел) & Bozhechkova, Alexandra (Божечкова, Александра) & Goryunov, Eugene (Горюнов, Евгений) & Petrova, Diana, 2017. "Analysis of Approaches to Accounting of the Information Effects of Monetary Policy [Анализ Подходов К Учету Информационных Эффектов Денежно-Кредитной Политики]," Working Papers 031723, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration.
    6. Apergis, Nicholas, 2015. "The role of FOMC minutes for US asset prices before and after the 2008 crisis: Evidence from GARCH volatility modeling," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 100-107.
    7. Dick van Dijk & Robin L. Lumsdaine & Michel van der Wel, 2014. "Market Set-Up in Advance of Federal Reserve Policy Decisions," NBER Working Papers 19814, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Gunda‐Alexandra Detmers & Ozer Karagedikli & Richhild Moessner, 2021. "Quantitative or Qualitative Forward Guidance: Does it Matter?," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 97(319), pages 491-503, December.
    9. Richhild Moessner & David-Jan Jansen & Jakob de Haan, 2017. "Communication About Future Policy Rates In Theory And Practice: A Survey," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(3), pages 678-711, July.
    10. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/2g6qj1trtu8q2r79ee4jp49krd is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Alexander Jung & Patrick Kuehl, 2021. "Can central bank communication help to stabilise inflation expectations?," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 68(3), pages 298-321, July.
    12. Rosa, Carlo, 2011. "Words that shake traders," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(5), pages 915-934.
    13. Robert S. Chirinko & Christopher Curran, 2013. "Greenspan Shrugs: Central Bank Communication, Formal Pronouncements and Bond Market Volatility," CESifo Working Paper Series 4236, CESifo.
    14. Hayo, Bernd & Henseler, Kai & Steffen Rapp, Marc & Zahner, Johannes, 2022. "Complexity of ECB communication and financial market trading," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 128(C).
    15. Paul Hubert & Fabien Labondance, 2016. "Central Bank Sentiment and Policy Expectations," Sciences Po Economics Publications (main) hal-03459227, HAL.
    16. Moessner, Richhild, 2013. "Effects of explicit FOMC policy rate guidance on interest rate expectations," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 121(2), pages 170-173.
    17. Stylianos X. Koufadakis, 2015. "Asymmetries on Closed End Country Funds Premium and Monetary Policy Announcements: An Approach Trough the Perspective of Foreign Countries," SPOUDAI Journal of Economics and Business, SPOUDAI Journal of Economics and Business, University of Piraeus, vol. 65(3-4), pages 29-65, july-Dece.
    18. Claus Brand & Daniel Buncic & Jarkko Turunen, 2010. "The Impact of ECB Monetary Policy Decisions and Communication on the Yield Curve," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 8(6), pages 1266-1298, December.
    19. Helder Ferreira de Mendonça & Ivando Faria, 2015. "Brazilian Central Bank communication and interest rate expectations," Macroeconomics and Finance in Emerging Market Economies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(1-2), pages 25-44, July.
    20. Andrade, Philippe & Ferroni, Filippo, 2021. "Delphic and odyssean monetary policy shocks: Evidence from the euro area," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 816-832.
    21. R. Erasmus & H. Hollander, 2020. "A Forward Guidance Indicator For The South African Reserve Bank: Implementing A Text Analysis Algorithm," Studies in Economics and Econometrics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(3), pages 41-72, December.
    22. Paul Hubert & Fabien Labondance, 2019. "Central bank tone and the dispersion of views within monetary policy committees," Working Papers hal-03403256, HAL.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:zbw:sfb649:sfb649dp2010-062. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/sohubde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.