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Using wavelets to measure core inflation: the case in New Zealand

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Abstract

This paper uses wavelets to develop a core inflation measure for inflation targeting central banks. The analysis is applied to the case of New Zealand – the country with the longest history of explicit inflation targeting. We compare the performance of our proposed measure against some popular alternatives. Our measure does well at identifying a reliable medium-term trend in inflation. It also has comparable forecasting performance to standard benchmarks.

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  • David Baqaee, 2009. "Using wavelets to measure core inflation: the case in New Zealand," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2009/05, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
    • Handle: RePEc:nzb:nzbdps:2009/05
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    1. Christoph Schleicher, 2002. "An Introduction to Wavelets for Economists," Staff Working Papers 02-3, Bank of Canada.
    2. Scott Roger, 1998. "Core inflation: concepts, uses and measurement," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series G98/9, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
    3. Dowd, Kevin & Cotter, John & Loh, Lixia, 2011. "U.S. Core Inflation: A Wavelet Analysis," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 15(4), pages 513-536, September.
    4. Marques, Carlos Robalo & Neves, Pedro Duarte & da Silva, Afonso Goncalves, 2002. "Why should Central Banks avoid the use of the underlying inflation indicator?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 75(1), pages 17-23, March.
    5. Stephen G. Cecchetti, 1997. "Measuring short-run inflation for central bankers," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue May, pages 143-155.
    6. Mick Silver, 2007. "Core Inflation: Measurement and Statistical Issues in Choosing Among Alternative Measures," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 54(1), pages 163-190, May.
    7. Mark A. Wynne, 2008. "Core inflation: a review of some conceptual issues," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 90(May), pages 205-228.
    8. Robert W. Rich & Charles Steindel, 2005. "A review of core inflation and an evaluation of its measures," Staff Reports 236, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    9. Thérèse Laflèche, 1997. "Statistical measures of the trend rate of inflation," Bank of Canada Review, Bank of Canada, vol. 1997(Autumn), pages 29-47.
    10. Alexandra Heath & Ivan Roberts & Tim Bulman, 2004. "Inflation in Australia: Measurement and Modelling," RBA Annual Conference Volume (Discontinued), in: Christopher Kent & Simon Guttmann (ed.),The Future of Inflation Targeting, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    11. Jamie Armour, 2006. "An Evaluation of Core Inflation Measures," Staff Working Papers 06-10, Bank of Canada.
    12. Cogley, Timothy, 2002. "A Simple Adaptive Measure of Core Inflation," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 34(1), pages 94-113, February.
    13. Ramsey, J.B., 2002. "Wavelets in Economics and Finance: Past and Future," Working Papers 02-02, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University.
    14. Michael F. Bryan & Stephen G. Cecchetti & Rodney L. Wiggins II, 1997. "Efficient Inflation Estimation," NBER Working Papers 6183, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    15. Patrick M. Crowley, 2007. "A Guide To Wavelets For Economists," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 21(2), pages 207-267, April.
    16. Domenico Giannone & Troy D. Matheson, 2007. "A New Core Inflation Indicator for New Zealand," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 3(4), pages 145-180, December.
    17. Ramsey James B., 2002. "Wavelets in Economics and Finance: Past and Future," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 6(3), pages 1-29, November.
    18. Scott Roger, 1998. "Core Inflation: Concepts, Uses and Measurement," Occasional Papers, South East Asian Central Banks (SEACEN) Research and Training Centre, number occ24, April.
    19. Stuart Barber & Guy P. Nason, 2004. "Real nonparametric regression using complex wavelets," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 66(4), pages 927-939, November.
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    Cited by:

    1. Hai Vo, Long & Hong Vo, Duc, 2020. "Long-run dynamics of exchange rates: A multi-frequency investigation," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    2. Lahura, Erick & Vega, Marco, 2011. "Wavelet-based Core Inflation Measures: Evidence from Peru," Working Papers 2011-019, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú.
    3. Long Hai Vo & Duc Hong Vo, 2020. "Modelling Australian Dollar Volatility at Multiple Horizons with High-Frequency Data," Risks, MDPI, vol. 8(3), pages 1-16, August.
    4. Winkelmann, Lars, 2010. "The Norges Bank's key rate projections and the news element of monetary policy: A wavelet based jump detection approach," SFB 649 Discussion Papers 2010-062, Humboldt University Berlin, Collaborative Research Center 649: Economic Risk.
    5. Erick Lahura & Marco Vega, 2011. "Evaluation of Wavelet-based Core Inflation Measures: Evidence from Peru," Documentos de Trabajo / Working Papers 2011-320, Departamento de Economía - Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú.
    6. Cortés Espada Josué Fernando & Sámano Daniel & Gutiérrez Villanueva Rubí, 2019. "Dynamics of Mexican Inflation: A Wavelet Analysis," Working Papers 2019-17, Banco de México.
    7. Stan Plessis & Gideon Rand & Kevin Kotzé, 2015. "Measuring Core Inflation in South Africa," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 83(4), pages 527-548, December.
    8. Armas, Adrián & Vallejos , Lucy & Vega, Marco, 2011. "Indicadores tendenciales de inflación y su relevancia como variables indicativas de política monetaria," Revista Estudios Económicos, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú, issue 20, pages 27-56.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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