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Evaluation of Wavelet-based Core Inflation Measures: Evidence from Peru

  • Erick Lahura

    ()

    (Departamento de Economía - Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú
    Banco Central de la Reserva del Perú)

  • Marco Vega

    ()

    (Departamento de Economía - Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú
    Banco Central de la Reserva del Perú)

Under inflation targeting and other related monetary policy regimes, the identication of non-transitory inflation and forecasts about future inflation constitute key ingredients for monetary policy decisions. In practice, central banks perform these tasks using so-called "core inflation measures". In this paper we construct alternative core inflation measures using wavelet functions and multiresolution analysis (MRA), and then evaluate their relevance for monetary policy. The construction of wavelet-based core inflation measures (WIMs) is relatively new in the literature and their assessment has not been addressed formally, this paper being the first attempt to perform both tasks for the case of Peru. Another main contribution of this paper is that it proposes two alternative criteria for evaluating core inflation measures: (i) a VAR-based long-run criterion, and (ii) forecast-based criteria. Evidence from Peru shows that WIMs are superior in terms of long-run performance, and that they could improve short-term (up-to-6-months) inflation forecasts.

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Paper provided by Departamento de Economía - Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú in its series Documentos de Trabajo / Working Papers with number 2011-320.

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Length: pages
Date of creation: 2011
Date of revision:
Publication status: published
Handle: RePEc:pcp:pucwps:wp00320
Contact details of provider: Postal: Av. Universitaria 1801, San Miguel, Lima, Perú
Phone: (511) 626-2000 ext. 4950, 4951
Fax: (511) 626-2874
Web page: http://departamento.pucp.edu.pe/economia/
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  1. Kevin Dowd & John Cotter, 2011. "U.S. Core Inflation: A Wavelet Analysis," Working Papers 200617, Geary Institute, University College Dublin.
  2. Olivier Jean Blanchard & Danny Quah, 1988. "The Dynamic Effects of Aggregate Demand and Supply Disturbance," Working papers 497, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
  3. Quah, Danny, 1995. "Measuring Core Inflation," CEPR Discussion Papers 1153, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  4. Pesaran, M Hashem & Timmermann, Allan, 1992. "A Simple Nonparametric Test of Predictive Performance," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 10(4), pages 561-65, October.
  5. Diebold, Francis X & Mariano, Roberto S, 2002. "Comparing Predictive Accuracy," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 134-44, January.
  6. Baqaee, David, 2010. "Using wavelets to measure core inflation: The case of New Zealand," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(3), pages 241-255, December.
  7. Danny Quah & Danny Quah & Shaun P. Vahey, 1995. "Measuring Core Inflation," CEP Discussion Papers dp0254, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
  8. Lahura Serrano, Erick W., 2004. "La relación dinero-producto, brecha del producto e inflación subyacente: algunas aplicaciones de las funciones Wavelets," Revista Estudios Económicos, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú, issue 11.
  9. Smith, Julie K, 2004. "Weighted Median Inflation: Is This Core Inflation?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 36(2), pages 253-63, April.
  10. Cogley, Timothy, 2002. "A Simple Adaptive Measure of Core Inflation," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 34(1), pages 94-113, February.
  11. Armas, Adrián & Vallejos , Lucy & Vega, Marco, 2011. "Indicadores tendenciales de inflación y su relevancia como variables indicativas de política monetaria," Revista Estudios Económicos, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú, issue 20, pages 27-56.
  12. Christoph Schleicher, 2002. "An Introduction to Wavelets for Economists," Working Papers 02-3, Bank of Canada.
  13. Ribba, Antonio, 2003. "Permanent-transitory decompositions and traditional measures of core inflation," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 81(1), pages 109-116, October.
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