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Why Should Central Banks Avoid the Use of the Underlying Inflation Indicator?

  • Carlos Robalo Marques
  • Pedro Duarte Neves
  • Afonso Gonçalves da Silva

This paper assesses the usefulness of the commonly used underlying inflation indicator, in light of the criteria proposed in Marques et al. (2000). Empirical evidence for a group of six countries strongly suggets that the use of underlying inflation as an indicator of trend inflation should be avoided.

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File URL: http://www.bportugal.pt/en-US/BdP%20Publications%20Research/WP200005.pdf
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Paper provided by Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department in its series Working Papers with number w200005.

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Date of creation: 2000
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Handle: RePEc:ptu:wpaper:w200005
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  1. Robalo Marques, Carlos & Duarte Neves, Pedro & Morais Sarmento, Luis, 2003. "Evaluating core inflation indicators," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 765-775, July.
  2. Michael F. Bryan & Stephen G. Cecchetti, 1994. "Measuring Core Inflation," NBER Chapters, in: Monetary Policy, pages 195-219 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Luis J. Álvarez & María de los Llanos Matea, 1999. "Underlying Inflation Measures in Spain," Banco de Espa�a Working Papers 9911, Banco de Espa�a.
  4. Freeman, Donald G., 1998. "Do core inflation measures help forecast inflation?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 58(2), pages 143-147, February.
  5. Alan S. Blinder, 1982. "The Anatomy of Double-Digit Inflation in the 1970s," NBER Chapters, in: Inflation: Causes and Effects, pages 261-282 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Michael F. Bryan & Stephen G. Cecchetti & Rodney L. Wiggins II, 1997. "Efficient Inflation Estimation," NBER Working Papers 6183, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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