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Is the Euro-Area Core Price Index Really More Persistent than the Food and Energy Price Indexes?

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  • José Manuel Belbute

    () (Universidade de Évora, Departamento de Economia e CEFAGE-UE)

Abstract

The purpose of this paper is to measure the degree of persistence of the overall, core, food and energy Harmonized Indexes of Consumer Prices for the European Monetary Zone (HICP-EAs) and to identify its implications for decision-making in the private sector and in public policy. Using a non-parametric approach, our results demonstrate the presence of a statistically significant level of persistence in four HICP-EAs: headline, core, food and energy. Moreover, contrary to popular belief, the core index does not reflect permanent price changes. We also find evidence that the food and energy price indexes are more volatile and more persistent than the other two price indexes. Our results also show a reduction in persistence for both the headline and the core price indexes after the implementation of the single monetary policy, but not for food and energy. These results have important implications for both the private sector and for policymakers who use the core as a reference price index for their decision-making because the use of this index can lead to an erroneous perception of price movements.

Suggested Citation

  • José Manuel Belbute, 2010. "Is the Euro-Area Core Price Index Really More Persistent than the Food and Energy Price Indexes?," Economics Working Papers 3_2010, University of Évora, Department of Economics (Portugal).
  • Handle: RePEc:evo:wpecon:3_2010
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10174/8470
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    Cited by:

    1. José Manuel Belbute & Leonardo Dia Massala & Júlio António Delgado, 2016. "Measuring Persistence in Inflation: Evidence For angola," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 84(4), pages 594-606, December.
    2. José Manuel Belbute & Leonardo Dia Massala & Júlio António Delgado, 2015. "Assessing core inflation indicators: evidence for Angola," CEFAGE-UE Working Papers 2015_01, University of Evora, CEFAGE-UE (Portugal).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Harmonized Index of Consumption Prices; Core Inflation; Euro Area; Persistence;

    JEL classification:

    • C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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