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Using Mean Reversion as a Measure of Persistence

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  • Daniel Dias
  • Carlos Robalo Marques

Abstract

This paper elaborates on the alternative measure of persistence recently suggested in Marques (2004), which is based on the idea of mean reversion. A formal distinction between the “unconditional probability of a given process not crossing its mean in period t†and its estimator, is made clear and the relationship between this new measure and the widely used “sum of the autoregressive coefficients†, as alternative measures of persistence, is investigated. Using the law of large numbers and the central limit theorem, properties for the estimator of the new measure of persistence are established, which allow tests of hypotheses to be performed, under very general conditions. Finally, some Monte Carlo experiments are conducted in order to compare the finite sample properties of the estimator for the “unconditional probability of a given process not crossing its mean in period t†and the OLS estimator for the “sum of the autoregressive coefficients†.

Suggested Citation

  • Daniel Dias & Carlos Robalo Marques, 2005. "Using Mean Reversion as a Measure of Persistence," Working Papers w200503, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
  • Handle: RePEc:ptu:wpaper:w200503
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    Cited by:

    1. Vahagn Galstyan, 2007. "How Persistent are International Capital Flows?," The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series iiisdp232, IIIS.
    2. Diego Romero-Avila & DIEGO ROMERO-ÁVILA & ILASKI BARAÑANO, 2012. "Long-Term Growth and Persistence with Endogenous Depreciation: Theory and Evidence," EcoMod2012 3757, EcoMod.
    3. Bilke, Laurent & Stracca, Livio, 2007. "A persistence-weighted measure of core inflation in the Euro area," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 24(6), pages 1032-1047, November.
    4. Indranil Bhattacharyya & Mohua Roy & Himanshu Joshi & Michael Patra, 2009. "Money market microstructure and monetary policy: the Indian experience," Macroeconomics and Finance in Emerging Market Economies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 2(1), pages 59-77.
    5. Belbute, José & Caleiro, António, 2009. "Measuring the Persistence on Consumption in Portugal," MPRA Paper 15116, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Belbute, José & Caleiro, António, 2010. "Cross Country Evidence on Consumption Persistence," MPRA Paper 22008, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Fabrizio Coricelli & Roman Horváth, 2010. "Price setting and market structure: an empirical analysis of micro data in Slovakia," Managerial and Decision Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 31(2-3), pages 209-233.
    8. Filippo Altissimo & Michael Ehrmann & Frank Smets, 2006. "Inflation persistence and price-setting behaviour in the euro area : a summary of the Inflation Persistence Network evidence," Working Paper Research 95, National Bank of Belgium.
    9. E. Dhyne, 2005. "Inflation persistence and price-setting in the euro area : results of the Eurosystem Inflation Persistence Network," Economic Review, National Bank of Belgium, issue iv, pages 17-37, December.
    10. Filippo Altissimo & Michael Ehrmann & Frank Smets, 2006. "Inflation persistence and price-setting behaviour in the euro area – a summary of the IPN evidence," Occasional Paper Series 46, European Central Bank.
    11. Jos� BELBUTE & Ant�nio CALEIRO, 2009. "Measuring Persistence On Consumption In Portugal," Journal of Applied Economic Sciences, Spiru Haret University, Faculty of Financial Management and Accounting Craiova, vol. 4(2(8)_ Sum).
    12. Patrick Lunnemann & Thomas Matha, 2009. "Mean reversion and sales," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(12), pages 1271-1275.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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