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Implications of structural changes in the U.S. economy for pricing behavior and inflation dynamics

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  • Jonathan L. Willis

Abstract

Some key features of the behavior of inflation in the United States appear to have changed in the past 20 years, with potentially important implications for forecasters and policymakers. Recent studies have provided evidence of a decline in both the variability and persistence of inflation. ; Such shifts in the behavior or dynamics of inflation would necessitate changes in the economic relationships used by policymakers and economists to assess current conditions, forecast key economic indicators, and determine the implications of policy changes for future economic activity. ; Willis examines how structural changes in the economy over the past two decades may have affected the price-setting behavior of firms and, in turn, the behavior of aggregate inflation. He concludes that structural changes in the economy over the past 20 years have likely contributed to a decrease in the persistence and volatility of inflation.

Suggested Citation

  • Jonathan L. Willis, 2003. "Implications of structural changes in the U.S. economy for pricing behavior and inflation dynamics," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Q I, pages 5-27.
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedker:y:2003:i:qi:p:5-27:n:v.88no.1
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    File URL: http://www.kansascityfed.org/Publicat/econrev/Pdf/1q03will.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Muhammad Nadim Hanif & Muhammad Jahanzeb Malik & Javed Iqbal, 2016. "Intrinsic Inflation Persistence in a Developing Country," SBP Research Bulletin, State Bank of Pakistan, Research Department, vol. 12, pages 19-42.
    2. Daniel Levy & Dongwon Lee & Haipeng (Allan) Chen & Robert J. Kauffman & Mark Bergen, 2011. "Price Points and Price Rigidity," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 93(4), pages 1417-1431, November.
    3. Avichai Snir & Daniel Levy & Alex Gotler & Haipeng (Allen) Chen, 2012. "Not All Price Endings are Created Equal: Price Points and Asymmetric Price Rigidity," Emory Economics 1206, Department of Economics, Emory University (Atlanta).
    4. Andrew T. Young & Daniel Levy, 2014. "Explicit Evidence of an Implicit Contract," Journal of Law, Economics, and Organization, Oxford University Press, vol. 30(4), pages 804-832.
    5. George Hondroyiannis & Sophia Lazaretou, 2007. "Inflation persistence during periods of structural change: an assessment using Greek data," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 34(5), pages 453-475, December.
    6. Alfredo M. Pereira & José M. Belbute, 2014. "Final Energy Demand in Portugal: How Persistent it is and Why it Matters for Environmental Policy," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 28(4), pages 661-677, December.
    7. José Manuel Belbute & Leonardo Dia Massala & Júlio António Delgado, 2016. "Measuring Persistence in Inflation: Evidence For angola," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 84(4), pages 594-606, December.
    8. Bilke, Laurent, 2005. "Break in the mean and persistence of inflation: a sectoral analysis of French CPI," Working Paper Series 463, European Central Bank.
    9. Chengsi Zhang & Denise R. Osborn & Dong Heon Kim, 2008. "The New Keynesian Phillips Curve: From Sticky Inflation to Sticky Prices," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 40(4), pages 667-699, June.
    10. Winther, K. Tobias, 2008. "Analyzing new profit opportunities: a guide to making business projects financially successful," MPRA Paper 11346, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Sharon Kozicki & Peter A. Tinsley, 2002. "Alternative sources of the lag dynamics of inflation," Research Working Paper RWP 02-12, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
    12. Daniel Levy & Frank Smets, 2010. "Price setting and price adjustment in some European Union Countries: introduction to the special issue," Managerial and Decision Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 31(2-3), pages 63-66.
    13. Dias, Daniel A. & Marques, Carlos Robalo, 2010. "Using mean reversion as a measure of persistence," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 262-273, January.
    14. Carlos Robalo Marques, 2005. "Inflation persistence: facts or artefacts?," Economic Bulletin and Financial Stability Report Articles and Banco de Portugal Economic Studies, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    15. Bilke, L., 2005. "Break in the Mean and Persistence of Inflation: a Sectoral Analysis of French CPI," Working papers 122, Banque de France.
    16. Jin, Hyun Joung & Miljkovic, Dragan, 2005. "Analysis of Multiple Structural Breaks in Relative Farm Prices in the United States, 1913-2003," 2005 Annual meeting, July 24-27, Providence, RI 19118, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    17. Adam Fein, 2004. "The Myth of Decline: A New Perspective on the Supply Chain and Changing Inventory-Sales Ratios," Working Papers 04-18, Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau, revised Feb 2005.
    18. Chengsi Zhang & Joel Clovis, 2009. "Modeling US inflation dynamics: persistence and monetary policy regimes," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 36(2), pages 455-477, May.
    19. repec:rim:rimwps:04-07 is not listed on IDEAS
    20. Mónica Correa-López & Agustín García-Serrador & Cristina Mingorance-Arnáiz, 2014. "Product Market Competition, Monetary Policy Regimes and Inflation Dynamics: Evidence from a Panel of OECD Countries," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 76(4), pages 484-509, August.
    21. Andrew T. Young & Daniel Levy, 2014. "Explicit Evidence of an Implicit Contract," Journal of Law, Economics, and Organization, Oxford University Press, vol. 30(4), pages 804-832.

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    Keywords

    Inflation (Finance) ; Prices;

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