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Break in the mean and persistence of inflation: a sectoral analysis of French CPI

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  • Bilke, Laurent

Abstract

This paper uses disaggregated CPI time series to show that a break in the mean of French inflation occurred in the mid-eighties and that the 1983 monetary policy shift mostly accounted for it. CPI average yearly growth declined from nearly 11% before the break date (May 1985) to 2.1% after. No other break in the 1973-2004 sample period can be found. Controlling for this mean break, both aggregate and sectoral inflation persistence are stable and low, with the unit root lying far in the tail of the persistence estimates. However, persistence differs dramatically across sectors. Finally, the duration between two price changes (at the firm level) appears positively related with inflation persistence (at the aggregate level). JEL Classification: E31, C12, C22

Suggested Citation

  • Bilke, Laurent, 2005. "Break in the mean and persistence of inflation: a sectoral analysis of French CPI," Working Paper Series 463, European Central Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:2005463
    Note: 391091
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    inflation persistence; monetary policy; multiple breaks test; sectoral prices;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • C12 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Hypothesis Testing: General
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes

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