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Staggered Price Contracts And Inflation Persistence: Some General Results

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  • Karl Whelan

Abstract

Despite their popularity as theoretical tools for illustrating the effects of nominal rigidities, some have questioned whether models based on staggered price contracts with rational expectations can match the persistence of the empirical inflation process. This article presents some general results about this class of models. It is shown that these models do not have a problem matching high autocorrelations for inflation. However, they fail to explain a key feature of reduced-form Phillips-curve regressions: The positive dependence of inflation on its own lags. It is shown that staggered price contracting models instead predict that the coefficients on these lag terms should be negative. Copyright 2007 by the Economics Department Of The University Of Pennsylvania And Osaka University Institute Of Social And Economic Research Association.

Suggested Citation

  • Karl Whelan, 2007. "Staggered Price Contracts And Inflation Persistence: Some General Results," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 48(1), pages 111-145, February.
  • Handle: RePEc:ier:iecrev:v:48:y:2007:i:1:p:111-145
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. V. V. Chari & Patrick J. Kehoe & Ellen R. McGrattan, 2000. "Sticky Price Models of the Business Cycle: Can the Contract Multiplier Solve the Persistence Problem?," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 68(5), pages 1151-1180, September.
    2. Taylor, John B, 1979. "Staggered Wage Setting in a Macro Model," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 69(2), pages 108-113, May.
    3. Gerard O'Reilly & Karl Whelan, 2005. "Has Euro-Area Inflation Persistence Changed Over Time?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 87(4), pages 709-720, November.
    4. Gali, Jordi & Gertler, Mark & Lopez-Salido, J. David, 2001. "European inflation dynamics," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 45(7), pages 1237-1270.
    5. Guerrieri, Luca, 2006. "The Inflation Persistence of Staggered Contracts," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 38(2), pages 483-494, March.
    6. Fagan, Gabriel & Henry, Jérôme & Mestre, Ricardo, 2001. "An area-wide model (AWM) for the euro area," Working Paper Series 0042, European Central Bank.
    7. Gali, Jordi & Gertler, Mark, 1999. "Inflation dynamics: A structural econometric analysis," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 195-222, October.
    8. Binder,M. & Pesaran,H.M., 1995. "Multivariate Rational Expectations Models and Macroeconomic Modelling: A Review and Some New Results," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9415, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    9. Jeff Fuhrer & George Moore, 1995. "Inflation Persistence," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 110(1), pages 127-159.
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    Cited by:

    1. Bakhshi, Hasan & Khan, Hashmat & Rudolf, Barbara, 2007. "The Phillips curve under state-dependent pricing," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(8), pages 2321-2345, November.
    2. Charemza, Wojciech W. & Makarova, Svetlana, 2005. "Ex-ante dynamics of real effects of monetary policy : theory and evidence for Poland and Russia," BOFIT Discussion Papers 20/2005, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
    3. Filippo Altissimo & Michael Ehrmann & Frank Smets, 2006. "Inflation persistence and price-setting behaviour in the euro area : a summary of the Inflation Persistence Network evidence," Working Paper Research 95, National Bank of Belgium.
    4. Sheedy, Kevin D., 2010. "Intrinsic inflation persistence," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(8), pages 1049-1061, November.
    5. Hashmat Khan & John Tsoukalas, 2005. "Technology Shocks and UK Business Cycles," Macroeconomics 0512006, EconWPA.
    6. Beetsma, Roel & Westerhout, Ed, 2016. "A comparison of nominal and indexed debt under fiscal constraints," CEPR Discussion Papers 11141, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    7. Jeremy Rudd & Karl Whelan, 2007. "Modeling Inflation Dynamics: A Critical Review of Recent Research," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(s1), pages 155-170, February.
    8. Gregory de Walque & Frank Smets & Rafael Wouters, 2006. "Firm-Specific Production Factors in a DSGE Model with Taylor Price Setting," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 2(3), September.
    9. Fang Yao, 2011. "Monetary Policy, Trend Inflation and Inflation Persistence," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2011-008, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
    10. Yao, Fang, 2009. "Time-dependent pricing and New Keynesian Phillips curve," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2009,08, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
    11. Loupias, Claire & Ricart, Roland, 2004. "Price setting in France: new evidence from survey data," Working Paper Series 423, European Central Bank.
    12. Alvarez González, Luis Julián, 2008. "What Do Micro Price Data Tell Us on the Validity of the New Keynesian Phillips Curve?," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW), vol. 2, pages 1-36.
    13. d’Albis, Hippolyte & Augeraud-Véron, Emmanuelle & Hupkes, Hermen Jan, 2014. "Stability and determinacy conditions for mixed-type functional differential equations," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 119-129.
    14. repec:cml:incocp:2en-3 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. repec:cml:incocp:2sp-3 is not listed on IDEAS
    16. Stephen G. Cecchetti & Guy Debelle, 2006. "Has the inflation process changed?," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 21(46), pages 311-352, April.
    17. Fang Yao, 2009. "The Cost of Tractability and the Calvo Pricing Assumption," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2009-042, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
    18. Fang Yao, 2010. "Can the New Keynesian Phillips Curve Explain Inflation Gap Persistence?," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2010-030, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
    19. Filippo Altissimo & Michael Ehrmann & Frank Smets, 2006. "Inflation persistence and price-setting behaviour in the euro area – a summary of the IPN evidence," Occasional Paper Series 46, European Central Bank.
    20. Bilke, L., 2005. "Break in the Mean and Persistence of Inflation: a Sectoral Analysis of French CPI," Working papers 122, Banque de France.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation

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