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Intrinsic Inflation Persistence in a Developing Country

  • Hanif, M. Nadim
  • Malik, Muhammad Jahanzeb
  • Iqbal, Javed

This study estimates degree of intrinsic inflation persistence in Pakistan using aggregate price index, group level price indices, and individual commodity prices. We find no evidence of a unit root in (MoM) inflation at any level, except for house rent. Using monthly data from 1959 to 2011 we find that the estimate of (overall) inflation persistence is 0.16, which is low but significant. During 2001-2011 (overall) inflation persistence is insignificant. Food inflation does not exhibit any persistence during the last decade. However, the degree of persistence is very high (0.80) and significant for core inflation (NFNE), which weakens slightly (to 0.69) when we account for commodities price shock of 2008. At micro level, the estimated degree of inflation persistence for various groups is found to be relatively higher, in almost 60 percent of the cases, compared to corresponding degree of persistence at aggregate level. This may be because in micro analysis we consider only those commodities for which the estimated degree of inflation persistence is significant.

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Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 39583.

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Date of creation: 21 Jun 2012
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Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:39583
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  1. Denise Osborn & Marianne Sensier, 2007. "UK inflation: persistance, seasonality and monetary policy," The School of Economics Discussion Paper Series 0716, Economics, The University of Manchester.
  2. Levin, Andrew & Lin, Chien-Fu & James Chu, Chia-Shang, 2002. "Unit root tests in panel data: asymptotic and finite-sample properties," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 108(1), pages 1-24, May.
  3. Gali, Jordi & Gertler, Mark, 1999. "Inflation dynamics: A structural econometric analysis," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 195-222, October.
  4. Bilke, Laurent, 2005. "Break in the mean and persistence of inflation: a sectoral analysis of French CPI," Working Paper Series 0463, European Central Bank.
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  15. Muhammad Ali Choudhary & Saima Naeem & Abdul Faheem & Muhammad Nadim Hanif & Farooq Pasha, 2011. "Formal Sector Price Discoveries: Preliminary Results from a Developing Country," SBP Working Paper Series 42, State Bank of Pakistan, Research Department.
  16. Bilke, L., 2005. "Break in the Mean and Persistence of Inflation: a Sectoral Analysis of French CPI," Working papers 122, Banque de France.
  17. M. Ali Choudhary & Saima Naeem & Abdul Faheem & Nadim Haneef & Farooq Pasha, 2011. "Formal Sector Price Discoveries: Results from a Developing Country," School of Economics Discussion Papers 1011, School of Economics, University of Surrey.
  18. Khundrakpam, Jeevan K., 2008. "How Persistent is Indian Inflationary Process, Has it Changed?," MPRA Paper 50927, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  19. Pasaran, M.H. & Im, K.S. & Shin, Y., 1995. "Testing for Unit Roots in Heterogeneous Panels," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9526, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
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