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Multiple Structural Breaks and Inflation Persistence: Evidence from China

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  • Tianfeng Li
  • June Wei

Abstract

type="main"> The degree of inflation persistence fluctuates more in developing countries than in industrialized countries. This is because there are more economic reforms in developing countries than in industrialized countries. Hence, it is important to study the inflation persistence in developing countries. The present paper investigates the pattern of inflation persistence in China, a developing and transitional economy. Specifically, the paper studies statistically the number of structural breaks in China's inflation persistence based on the monthly retail price index (MRPI) and the quarterly retail price index (QRPI) inflation series from 1983 to 2011. The findings show that there are five and three structural breaks in the MRPI and QRPI inflation persistence, respectively. The present paper also exposes a high degree of persistence over the whole sample period and a slight decline in the level of the persistence since 1994. Furthermore, the persistence of two inflation series does not change monotonously but with obvious cyclical patterns. Using these derived estimated structural breakpoints, likely causes of the breakpoints in inflation persistence are investigated. Finally, theoretical and practical implications are discussed.

Suggested Citation

  • Tianfeng Li & June Wei, 2015. "Multiple Structural Breaks and Inflation Persistence: Evidence from China," Asian Economic Journal, East Asian Economic Association, vol. 29(1), pages 1-20, March.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:asiaec:v:29:y:2015:i:1:p:1-20
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1111/asej.12044
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    Cited by:

    1. Muhammad Farooq Arby & Amjad Ali, 2017. "Threshold Inflation in Pakistan," SBP Research Bulletin, State Bank of Pakistan, Research Department, vol. 13, pages 1-19.
    2. Muhammad Nadim Hanif & Muhammad Jahanzeb Malik & Javed Iqbal, 2016. "Intrinsic Inflation Persistence in a Developing Country," SBP Research Bulletin, State Bank of Pakistan, Research Department, vol. 12, pages 19-42.
    3. Valera, Harold Glenn A. & Holmes, Mark J. & Hassan, Gazi M., 2017. "How credible is inflation targeting in Asia? A quantile unit root perspective," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 194-210.
    4. Muhammad Nadim Hanif & Javed Iqbal & Imran Naveed Khan, 2017. "Global Commodity Prices and Domestic Inflation: A Case Study of Pakistan," SBP Research Bulletin, State Bank of Pakistan, Research Department, vol. 13, pages 21-51.

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