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Inflation targeting and inflation persistence in Asia–Pacific

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  • Gerlach, Stefan
  • Tillmann, Peter

Abstract

Following the Asian financial crisis in 1997–1998, a number of regional central banks adopted inflation targeting. While it is possible for the average inflation rate to be close to target, deviations of inflation could nevertheless be large and protracted. We therefore explore how successful this framework has been by looking at the persistence of inflation, as measured by the sum of the coefficients in an autoregressive model for inflation, using a median unbiased estimator and bootstrapped confidence bands. We find that persistence tends to decline following the adoption of inflation targeting. The speed by which persistence falls varies across countries. Interestingly, the economies not adopting inflation targeting show a smaller decline in persistence. Overall, we conclude that inflation targeting has performed well in Asia.

Suggested Citation

  • Gerlach, Stefan & Tillmann, Peter, 2012. "Inflation targeting and inflation persistence in Asia–Pacific," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(4), pages 360-373.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:asieco:v:23:y:2012:i:4:p:360-373
    DOI: 10.1016/j.asieco.2012.03.002
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    Cited by:

    1. Jiranyakul, Komain, 2015. "Exchange Rate Regimes and Persistence of Inflation in Thailand," MPRA Paper 66203, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Francis Leni Anguyo & Rangan Gupta & Kevin Kotze, 2017. "Inflation Dynamics in Uganda: A Quantile Regression Approach," School of Economics Macroeconomic Discussion Paper Series 2017-07, School of Economics, University of Cape Town.
    3. Wieland, Volker & Wolters, Maik, 2013. "Forecasting and Policy Making," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, Elsevier.
    4. Pierre-Richard Agénor & Luiz A. Pereira da Silva, 2013. "Inflation Targeting and Financial Stability: A Perspective from the Developing World," Working Papers Series 324, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    5. Yanli LI, Hongfeng PENG & Hongfeng PENG, 2013. "Inflation Persistence in Nine Latin American Countries: Panel SURKSS Test with a Fourier Function," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(3), pages 132-143, October.
    6. Evžen Kočenda & Balázs Varga, 2018. "The Impact of Monetary Strategies on Inflation Persistence," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 14(4), pages 229-274, September.
    7. Jonathan A. Attey & Casper G. de Vries, 2016. "Monetary Policy in the Presence of Random Wage Indexation," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 16-086/VI, Tinbergen Institute.
    8. repec:eme:jespps:jes-10-2015-0190 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Valera, Harold Glenn A. & Holmes, Mark J. & Hassan, Gazi M., 2017. "How credible is inflation targeting in Asia? A quantile unit root perspective," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 194-210.
    10. Phiri, Andrew, 2017. "Inflation persistence in BRICS countries: A quantile autoregressive (QAR) model," MPRA Paper 79956, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Chow, Hwee Kwan & Lim, G.C. & McNelis, Paul D., 2014. "Monetary regime choice in Singapore: Would a Taylor rule outperform exchange-rate management?," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 63-81.
    12. Andrew Phiri, 2018. "Inflation persistence in BRICS countries: A quantile autoregressive (QAR) approach," Business and Economic Horizons (BEH), Prague Development Center, vol. 14(1), pages 97-104, January.
    13. Khalid Kisswani & Salah Nusair, 2014. "Nonlinear convergence in Asian interest and inflation rates: evidence from Asian countries," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 47(3), pages 155-186, August.
    14. Giorgio Canarella & Stephen Miller, 2016. "Inflation persistence and structural breaks: the experience of inflation targeting countries and the US," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 43(6), pages 980-1005, November.
    15. Shyh-Wei Chen & Chi-Sheng Hsu & Cyun-Jhen Pen, 2016. "Are Inflation Rates Mean-reverting Processes? Evidence from Six Asian Countries," Journal of Economics and Management, College of Business, Feng Chia University, Taiwan, vol. 12(1), pages 119-155, February.
    16. Alice Y. Ouyang & Ramkishen S. Rajan, 2016. "Does Inflation Targeting in Asia Reduce Exchange Rate Volatility?," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(2), pages 294-311, June.
    17. Giorgio Canarella & Stephen M. Miller, 2016. "Inflation Targeting: New Evidence from Fractional Integration and Cointegration," Working papers 2016-08, University of Connecticut, Department of Economics.
    18. Kurmaş Akdoğan, 2015. "Asymmetric Behaviour of Inflation around the Target in Inflation-Targeting Countries," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 62(5), pages 486-504, November.
    19. repec:eee:reveco:v:51:y:2017:i:c:p:245-257 is not listed on IDEAS
    20. repec:eee:jebusi:v:92:y:2017:i:c:p:45-62 is not listed on IDEAS
    21. Stephen M. Miller & WenShwo Fang & Ozkan Eren, 2012. "Inflation Targeting: Does It Improve Economic Performance?," Working Papers 1207, University of Nevada, Las Vegas , Department of Economics.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Inflation targeting; Asia; Inflation persistence; monetary policy strategy;

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E5 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit

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