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Monetary policy regimes and macroeconomic outcomes: Hong Kong and Singapore

In: Monetary policy in Asia: approaches and implementation

Author

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  • Stefan Gerlach

    (Bank for International Settlements)

  • Petra Gerlach-Kristen

    (Swiss National Bank)

Abstract

This paper studies the relationship between macroeconomic behaviour and the monetary policy regime in Hong Kong and Singapore, using data for 1984-2004. We estimate an econometric model, comprising a Phillips curve, an IS curve and an equation for changes in the nominal effective exchange rate (NEER), which, in the case of Singapore, can be interpreted as a policy reaction function. The parameter estimates differ in two regards: the NEER responds to inflation in Singapore but not in Hong Kong, and the autoregressive parameter for the output gap in Singapore is smaller than in Hong Kong. Overall, the variability of inflation has been lower in Singapore, but the volatility of real economic activity has been similar in the two economies.
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Suggested Citation

  • Stefan Gerlach & Petra Gerlach-Kristen, 2006. "Monetary policy regimes and macroeconomic outcomes: Hong Kong and Singapore," BIS Papers chapters,in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Monetary policy in Asia: approaches and implementation, volume 31, pages 40-64 Bank for International Settlements.
  • Handle: RePEc:bis:bisbpc:31-04
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Michael B. Devereux, 2003. "A Tale of Two Currencies: the Asian Crisis and the Exchange Rate Regimes of Hong Kong and Singapore," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 11(1), pages 38-54, February.
    2. Esanov, Akram & Merkl, Christian & Vinhas de Souza, Lucio, 2005. "Monetary policy rules for Russia," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 484-499, September.
    3. Eric Parrado, 2004. "Singapore's Unique Monetary Policy; How Does it Work?," IMF Working Papers 04/10, International Monetary Fund.
    4. Mark Crosby, 2004. "Exchange Rate Volatility and Macroeconomic Performance in Hong Kong," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 8(4), pages 606-623, November.
    5. Ramon Moreno, 1987. "Exchange rates and monetary policy in Singapore and Hong Kong," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, pages 173-200.
    6. M. S. Mohanty & Marc Klau, 2004. "Monetary policy rules in emerging market economies: issues and evidence," BIS Working Papers 149, Bank for International Settlements.
    7. Gerlach-Kristen, Petra, 2006. "Internal and external shocks in Hong Kong: Empirical evidence and policy options," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 56-75, January.
    8. Hans Genberg, 2005. "External Shocks, Transmission Mechanisms and Deflation in Asia," Working Papers 062005, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
    9. Gerlach, Stefan, 2005. "Monetary operations by Hong Kong's Currency Board," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(6), pages 1119-1135, January.
    10. Robert N McCauley, 2002. "Setting Monetary Policy in East Asia: Goals, Developments and Institutions," Occasional Papers, South East Asian Central Banks (SEACEN) Research and Training Centre, number occ33, April.
    11. Ramkishen S. Rajan & Reza Siregar, 2002. "Choice of Exchange Rate Regime: Currency Board (Hong Kong) or Monitoring Band (Singapore)?," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 41(4), pages 538-556, December.
    12. Taylor, John B., 1993. "Discretion versus policy rules in practice," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 195-214, December.
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    Cited by:

    1. Seedwell Hove & Albert Touna Mama & Fulbert Tchana Tchana, 2016. "Terms of Trade Shocks and Inflation Targeting in Emerging Market Economies," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 84(1), pages 81-108, March.
    2. Gerlach, Stefan & Tillmann, Peter, 2012. "Inflation targeting and inflation persistence in Asia–Pacific," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(4), pages 360-373.
    3. Chee-Heong Quah, 2012. "Can Japan or China replace the US as the monetary anchor for Hong Kong and Macau?," Asia Pacific Business Review, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(3), pages 335-354, July.
    4. Bennett T. McCallum, 2014. "Monetary Policy in a Very Open Economy: Some Major Analytical Issues," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 19(1), pages 27-60, February.
    5. Pierre L. Siklos & Diana N. Weymark, 2007. "Is Sterilized Intervention Effective? New International Evidence," Working Papers 142007, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
    6. Funke, Michael & Paetz, Michael & Pytlarczyk, Ernest, 2011. "Stock market wealth effects in an estimated DSGE model for Hong Kong," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(1-2), pages 316-334, January.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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