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Inflation persistence, inflation expectations, and monetary policy in China

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  • Zhang, Chengsi

Abstract

This paper constructs a quarterly series of GDP deflator inflation for China from 1979 to 2009 and tests for a structural break with an unknown change point in the dynamic inflation process. Empirical results suggest a significant structural change in inflation persistence. Employing a counterfactual simulation method, we show that the structural change is primarily attributed to better conduct of monetary policy and the resultant better anchored inflation expectations. This finding implies that the quiescence of inflation in China over the past decade could well be followed by a return to a high inflation era in the absence of a determined effort by the monetary authorities in managing inflation expectations. Therefore, the use of a preemptive monetary policy to anchor inflationary expectations and to keep inflation moderate is warranted in China.

Suggested Citation

  • Zhang, Chengsi, 2011. "Inflation persistence, inflation expectations, and monetary policy in China," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 622-629.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:28:y:2011:i:1:p:622-629
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2010.06.009
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Gerlach, Stefan & Tillmann, Peter, 2010. "Inflation Targeting and Inflation Persistence in Asia," CEPR Discussion Papers 8046, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    2. Muhammad Nadim Hanif & Muhammad Jahanzeb Malik & Javed Iqbal, 2012. "Intrinsic Inflation Persistence in a Developing Country," SBP Working Paper Series 52, State Bank of Pakistan, Research Department.
    3. Marlene Amstad & Ye Huan & Guonan Ma, 2014. "Developing an underlying inflation gauge for China," BIS Working Papers 465, Bank for International Settlements.
    4. Gerlach, Stefan & Tillmann, Peter, 2012. "Inflation targeting and inflation persistence in Asia–Pacific," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(4), pages 360-373.
    5. Muhammad Nadim Hanif & Javed Iqbal & Imran Naveed Khan, 2017. "Global Commodity Prices and Domestic Inflation: A Case Study of Pakistan," SBP Research Bulletin, State Bank of Pakistan, Research Department, vol. 13, pages 21-51.
    6. Zhang, Lingxiang, 2013. "Modeling China's inflation dynamics: An MRSTAR approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 440-446.
    7. Yanli LI, Hongfeng PENG & Hongfeng PENG, 2013. "Inflation Persistence in Nine Latin American Countries: Panel SURKSS Test with a Fourier Function," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(3), pages 132-143, October.
    8. repec:eee:riibaf:v:42:y:2017:i:c:p:1089-1095 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Meller, Barbara & Nautz, Dieter, 2012. "Inflation persistence in the Euro area before and after the European Monetary Union," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 1170-1176.
    10. Muhammad Farooq Arby & Amjad Ali, 2017. "Threshold Inflation in Pakistan," SBP Research Bulletin, State Bank of Pakistan, Research Department, vol. 13, pages 1-19.
    11. repec:eee:intfin:v:50:y:2017:i:c:p:36-51 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Yu Guo And Wei Ma, 2016. "Time-Varying Coefficient Taylor Rule and Chinese Monetary Policy: Evidence from the Time-Varying Cointegration," Journal of Economic Development, Chung-Ang Unviersity, Department of Economics, vol. 41(4), pages 27-44, December.
    13. Xu, Yingying & Chang, Hsu-Ling & Lobonţ, Oana-Ramona & Su, Chi-Wei, 2016. "Modeling heterogeneous inflation expectations: empirical evidence from demographic data?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 153-163.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Inflation; Inflation persistence; Inflation dynamics; Structural change; Monetary policy;

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes

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