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UK inflation: persistance, seasonality and monetary policy

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  • Denise Osborn
  • Marianne Sensier

Abstract

In the light of the changes to UK monetary policy since the early 1980s, we study the existence and nature of changes in the properties of retail price inflation over this period. A feature of our analysis is the attention paid to the marked seasonal pattern of monthly UK inflation. After taking account of seasonality, both univariate and Phillips curve models provide strong evidence of changes in the level and persistence of inflation around the end of 1992, at the time of the introduction of inflation targeting. Indeed, all models point to the effective disappearance of inflation persistence after this date, implying that constant‐parameter models estimated using both pre‐ and post‐inflation targeting data periods should be treated with considerable caution.
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  • Denise Osborn & Marianne Sensier, 2007. "UK inflation: persistance, seasonality and monetary policy," Economics Discussion Paper Series 0716, Economics, The University of Manchester.
  • Handle: RePEc:man:sespap:0716
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    Cited by:

    1. Erdenebat Bataa & Denise R. Osborn & Marianne Sensier & Dick van Dijk, 2014. "Identifying Changes in Mean, Seasonality, Persistence and Volatility for G7 and Euro Area Inflation," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 76(3), pages 360-388, June.
    2. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Luis Alberiko Gil‐Alana, 2020. "Fractional Integration and the Persistence of UK Inflation, 1210–2016," Economic Papers, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 39(2), pages 162-166, June.
    3. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Luis Alberiko Gil‐Alana & Tommaso Trani, 2022. "On the persistence of UK inflation: A long‐range dependence approach," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(1), pages 439-454, January.
    4. Muhammad Farooq Arby & Amjad Ali, 2017. "Threshold Inflation in Pakistan," SBP Research Bulletin, State Bank of Pakistan, Research Department, vol. 13, pages 1-19.
    5. Creel, Jérôme & Hubert, Paul, 2015. "Has Inflation Targeting Changed The Conduct Of Monetary Policy?," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 19(1), pages 1-21, January.
    6. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/9543 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Ellington, Michael & Milas, Costas, 2019. "Global liquidity, money growth and UK inflation," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 67-74.
    8. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/5nf0balck3981o9ril8lj58pud is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Christophe Blot & Jérôme Creel & Xavier Ragot, 2015. "Flexible inflation targeting vs nominal GDP targeting in the euro area," Sciences Po publications info:hdl:2441/5nf0balck39, Sciences Po.
    10. Muhammad Nadim Hanif & Muhammad Jahanzeb Malik & Javed Iqbal, 2016. "Intrinsic Inflation Persistence in a Developing Country," SBP Research Bulletin, State Bank of Pakistan, Research Department, vol. 12, pages 19-42.
    11. Juan Carlos Cuestas & Carlyn Dobson, 2011. "Inflation persistence: Implication for a monetary union in the Caribbean," Working Papers 2011017, The University of Sheffield, Department of Economics.
    12. Muhammad Nadim Hanif & Javed Iqbal & Imran Naveed Khan, 2017. "Global Commodity Prices and Domestic Inflation: A Case Study of Pakistan," SBP Research Bulletin, State Bank of Pakistan, Research Department, vol. 13, pages 21-51.
    13. Kristin Forbes & Lewis Kirkham & Konstantinos Theodoridis, 2021. "A Trendy Approach to UK Inflation Dynamics," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 89(S1), pages 23-75, September.
    14. Raquel Ayestarán & Juan Infante & Juan José Tenorio & Luis Alberiko Gil-Alana, 2023. "Evidence of Inflation Using Harmonized Consumer Price Indices in Some Euro Countries: France, Germany, Italy, and Spain, along with the Euro Zone," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 11(10), pages 1-12, May.
    15. Baillie, Richard T. & Morana, Claudio, 2012. "Adaptive ARFIMA models with applications to inflation," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(6), pages 2451-2459.
    16. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Luis Alberiko Gil-Alana & Carlos Poza, 2022. "Inflation in the G7 countries: persistence and structural breaks," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 46(3), pages 493-506, July.
    17. Creel, Jérôme & Hubert, Paul, 2015. "Has Inflation Targeting Changed The Conduct Of Monetary Policy?," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 19(1), pages 1-21, January.
    18. Christophe Blot & Jérôme Creel & Xavier Ragot, 2015. "Flexible inflation targeting vs nominal GDP targeting in the euro area," Sciences Po publications info:hdl:2441/5nf0balck39, Sciences Po.
    19. Juan Carlos Cuestas & Carlyn Ramlogan-Dobson, 2013. "Convergence of Inflationary Shocks: Evidence from the Caribbean," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(9), pages 1229-1243, September.
    20. Muhammad Ali Nasir & Junjie Wu & Milton Yago & Alaa M. Soliman, 2016. "Macroeconomic policy interaction: State dependency and implications for financial stability in UK: A systemic review," Cogent Business & Management, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 3(1), pages 1154283-115, December.
    21. Belkhouja, Mustapha & Mootamri, Imene, 2016. "Long memory and structural change in the G7 inflation dynamics," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 450-462.
    22. Rakesh Bissoondeeal & Michail Karoglou & Andy Mullineux, 2014. "Breaks in the UK Household Sector Money Demand Function," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 82, pages 47-68, December.
    23. Cover, James P. & Mallick, Sushanta K., 2012. "Identifying sources of macroeconomic and exchange rate fluctuations in the UK," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(6), pages 1627-1648.
    24. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/6150 is not listed on IDEAS
    25. Canarella, Giorgio & Miller, Stephen M., 2017. "Inflation targeting and inflation persistence: New evidence from fractional integration and cointegration," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 45-62.

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