Does Seasonality Change Over the Business Cycle? An Investigation Using Monthly Industrial Production Series
This paper examines the proposition that the business cycle affects seasonality in industrial production, with output being switched to the traditionally low production summer months when recent (annual) growth has been strong. This is investigated through the use of a restricted threshold autoregressive model for the monthly growth rate in a total of 74 industries from 16 OECD countries. Approximately one third of the series exhibit significant nonlinearity, with this nonlinearity predominantly associated with changes in the seasonal pattern. Estimates show that the summer slowdown in many European countries is substantially reduced when recent growth has been high.
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)
|Date of creation:||2001|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Manchester M13 9PL|
Phone: (0)161 275 4868
Fax: (0)161 275 4812
Web page: http://www.socialsciences.manchester.ac.uk/subjects/economics/
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- J. Joseph Beaulieu & Jeffrey A. Miron, 1992.
"Seasonal Unit Roots in Aggregate U.S. Data,"
NBER Technical Working Papers
0126, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Stephen G. Cecchetti & Anil K Kashyap, 1995.
NBER Working Papers
5310, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- van Dijk, D.J.C. & Strikholm, B. & Terasvirta, T., 2001.
"The effects of institutional and technological change and business cycle fluctiations on seasonal patterns in quarterly industrial production series,"
Econometric Institute Research Papers
EI 2001-12, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
- Dick van Dijk 1 & Birgit Strikholm & Timo Teräsvirta, 2003. "The effects of institutional and technological change and business cycle fluctuations on seasonal patterns in quarterly industrial production series," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 6(1), pages 79-98, 06.
- van Dijk, Dick & Strikholm, Birgit & Teräsvirta, Timo, 2001. "The effects of institutional and technological change and business cycle fluctuations on seasonal patterns in quarterly industrial production series," SSE/EFI Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 0429, Stockholm School of Economics, revised 16 May 2002.
- Marianne Baxter & Robert G. King, 1995.
"Measuring Business Cycles Approximate Band-Pass Filters for Economic Time Series,"
NBER Working Papers
5022, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Marianne Baxter & Robert G. King, 1999. "Measuring Business Cycles: Approximate Band-Pass Filters For Economic Time Series," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 81(4), pages 575-593, November.
- Krane, Spencer & Wascher, William, 1999.
"The cyclical sensitivity of seasonality in U.S. employment,"
Journal of Monetary Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 44(3), pages 523-553, December.
- Spencer D. Krane & William L. Wascher, 1995. "The cyclical sensitivity of seasonality in U.S. employment," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 95-43, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- S. Krane & W. Wascher, 1999. "The cyclical sensitivity of seasonality in US employment," BIS Working Papers 67, Bank for International Settlements.
- Stephen G. Cecchetti & Anil K. Kashyap & David W. Wilcox, 1997.
"Interactions between the seasonal and business cycles in production and inventories,"
Working Paper Series, Macroeconomic Issues
WP-97-06, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
- Cecchetti, Stephen G & Kashyap, Anil K & Wilcox, David W, 1997. "Interactions between the Seasonal and Business Cycles in Production and Inventories," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 87(5), pages 884-892, December.
- Simon M. Potter, 1993.
"A Nonlinear Approach to U.S. GNP,"
UCLA Economics Working Papers
693, UCLA Department of Economics.
- Canova, Fabio & Ghysels, Eric, 1994.
"Changes in seasonal patterns : Are they cyclical?,"
Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control,
Elsevier, vol. 18(6), pages 1143-1171, November.
- Canova, F. & Ghysels, E., 1992. "Changes in Seasonal Patters: Are They Cyclical," Cahiers de recherche 9216, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
- Canova, F. & Ghysels, E., 1992. "Changes in Seasonal Patters: Are They Cyclical," Cahiers de recherche 9216, Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en économie quantitative, CIREQ.
- Osborn, Denise R. & Heravi, Saeed & Birchenhall, C. R., 1999. "Seasonal unit roots and forecasts of two-digit European industrial production," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 27-47, February.
- Hansen, Bruce E, 1996.
"Inference When a Nuisance Parameter Is Not Identified under the Null Hypothesis,"
Econometric Society, vol. 64(2), pages 413-430, March.
- Tom Doan, "undated". "TAR: RATS procedure to estimate a threshold autoregression, tests for threshold effect," Statistical Software Components RTS00209, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Hansen, B.E., 1991. "Inference when a Nuisance Parameter is Not Identified Under the Null Hypothesis," RCER Working Papers 296, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
- Tom Doan, "undated". "RATS programs to replicate Hansen's threshold estimation and testing results," Statistical Software Components RTZ00091, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Hall, Alastair R, 1994. "Testing for a Unit Root in Time Series with Pretest Data-Based Model Selection," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 12(4), pages 461-470, October.
- Eric Ghysels, 1992.
"On the Periodic Structure of the Business Cycle,"
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
1028, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
- Diebold, Francis X. & Chen, Celia, 1996.
"Testing structural stability with endogenous breakpoint A size comparison of analytic and bootstrap procedures,"
Journal of Econometrics,
Elsevier, vol. 70(1), pages 221-241, January.
- Francis X. Diebold & Celia Chen, 1993. "Testing structural stability with endogenous break point: a size comparison of analytic and bootstrap procedures," Working Papers 93-11, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
- Ghysels,Eric & Osborn,Denise R., 2001.
"The Econometric Analysis of Seasonal Time Series,"
Cambridge University Press, number 9780521562607, May.
- Carpenter, Robert E & Levy, Daniel, 1998. "Seasonal Cycles, Business Cycles, and the Comovement of Inventory Investment and Output," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 30(3), pages 331-346, August.
- van Dijk, D.J.C. & Franses, Ph.H.B.F. & Lucas, A., 1996.
"Testing for Smooth Transition Nonlinearity in the Presence of Outliers,"
Econometric Institute Research Papers
EI 9622-/A, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
- Van Dijk, Dick & Franses, Philip Hans & Lucas, Andre, 1999. "Testing for Smooth Transition Nonlinearity in the Presence of Outliers," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 17(2), pages 217-235, April.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:man:sespap:0110. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Marianne Sensier)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.