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Modelling UK Inflation: Persistence, Seasonality and Monetary Policy

  • D R Osborn
  • M Sensier

This paper studies monthly RPIX inflation in the UK in the context of the change to inflation targeting in 1992. Our empirical models take account of the strong and changing seasonal pattern of inflation, while also focusing on inflation persistence and Phillips curve explanations. In both univariate and Phillips curve models, we find strong evidence of a change in parameters around the end of 1992, at the time of the introduction of inflation targeting. All models point to a substantial decline in inflation persistence after this date.

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File URL: http://hummedia.manchester.ac.uk/schools/soss/cgbcr/discussionpapers/dpcgbcr46.pdf
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Paper provided by Economics, The Univeristy of Manchester in its series Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series with number 46.

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Length: 31 pages
Date of creation: 2004
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:man:cgbcrp:46
Contact details of provider: Postal:
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Phone: (0)161 275 4868
Fax: (0)161 275 4812
Web page: http://www.socialsciences.manchester.ac.uk/subjects/economics/our-research/centre-for-growth-and-business-cycle-research/

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  1. Andrews, Donald W K & Ploberger, Werner, 1994. "Optimal Tests When a Nuisance Parameter Is Present Only under the Alternative," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 62(6), pages 1383-1414, November.
  2. Michael Arghyrou & Christopher Martin & Costas Milas, 2003. "Non-linear Inflationary Dynamics: Evidence from the UK," Economics and Finance Discussion Papers 03-03, Economics and Finance Section, School of Social Sciences, Brunel University.
  3. Nelson, Edward, 2001. "UK Monetary Policy 1972-97: A Guide Using Taylor Rules," CEPR Discussion Papers 2931, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  4. Jeff Fuhrer & George Moore, 1995. "Inflation Persistence," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 110(1), pages 127-159.
  5. Andrews, Donald W K, 1993. "Tests for Parameter Instability and Structural Change with Unknown Change Point," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(4), pages 821-56, July.
  6. Matas-Mir, Antoni & Denise R Osborn, 2002. "Does Seasonality Change over the Business Cycle? An Investigation using Monthly Industrial Production Series," Royal Economic Society Annual Conference 2002 139, Royal Economic Society.
  7. Eitrheim, Øyvind & Teräsvirta, Timo, 1995. "Testing the Adequacy of Smooth Transition Autoregressive Models," SSE/EFI Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 56, Stockholm School of Economics.
  8. Roberts, John M., 1997. "Is inflation sticky?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(2), pages 173-196, July.
  9. Ghysels, E. & Perron, P., 1990. "The Effect Of Seasonal Adjustment Filters On Tests For A Unit Root," Papers 355, Princeton, Department of Economics - Econometric Research Program.
  10. N. Gregory Mankiw & Ricardo Reis, 2001. "Sticky Information Versus Sticky Prices: A Proposal to Replace the New Keynesian Phillips Curve," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers 1922, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research.
  11. J. Joseph Beaulieu & Jeffrey A. Miron, 1992. "Seasonal Unit Roots in Aggregate U.S. Data," NBER Technical Working Papers 0126, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  12. Hyllerberg, S. & Engle, R.F. & Granger, C.W.J. & Yoo, B.S., 1988. "Seasonal Integration And Cointegration," Papers 0-88-2, Pennsylvania State - Department of Economics.
  13. Bruce E. Hansen, 1995. "Approximate Asymptotic P-Values for Structural Change Tests," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 297., Boston College Department of Economics.
  14. van Dijk, Dick & Teräsvirta, Timo & Franses, Philip Hans, 2000. "Smooth Transition Autoregressive Models - A Survey of Recent Developments," SSE/EFI Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 380, Stockholm School of Economics, revised 17 Jan 2001.
  15. Sensier, Marianne & Osborn, Denise R & Ocal, Nadir, 2002. " Asymmetric Interest Rate Effects for the UK Real Economy," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 64(4), pages 315-39, September.
  16. Galí, Jordi & Gertler, Mark & López-Salido, J David, 2001. "European Inflation Dynamics," CEPR Discussion Papers 2684, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  17. Lundbergh, Stefan & Terasvirta, Timo & van Dijk, Dick, 2003. "Time-Varying Smooth Transition Autoregressive Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 21(1), pages 104-21, January.
  18. Galí, Jordi & Gertler, Mark, 1999. "Inflation Dynamics: A Structural Economic Analysis," CEPR Discussion Papers 2246, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  19. Gali, Jordi & Gertler, Mark, 1999. "Inflation dynamics: A structural econometric analysis," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 195-222, October.
  20. Ravi Balakrishnan & J David Lopez-Salido, 2002. "Understanding UK inflation: the role of openness," Bank of England working papers 164, Bank of England.
  21. Jushan Bai, 1997. "Estimation Of A Change Point In Multiple Regression Models," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 79(4), pages 551-563, November.
  22. Osborn, Denise R, 1988. "Seasonality and Habit Persistence in a Life Cycle Model of Consumptio n," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 3(4), pages 255-66, October-D.
  23. Nelson, E., 1998. "Sluggish inflation and optimizing models of the business cycle," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(2), pages 303-322, July.
  24. Michael P. Clements & Marianne Sensier, 2003. "Asymmetric output-gap effects in Phillips Curve and mark-up pricing models: Evidence for the US and the UK," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 50(4), pages 359-374, 09.
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