Seasonal Unit Roots in Aggregate U.S. Data
In this paper we provide evidence on the presence of seasonal unit roots in aggregate U.S. data. The analysis is conducted using the approach developed by Hyllebcrg, Engle, Granger and Yoo (1990). We first derive the mechanics and asyrnptotics of the HEGY procedure for monthly data and use Monte Carlo methods to compute the finite sample critical values of the associated test statistics. We then apply quarterly and monthly HEGY procedures to aggregate U.S. data. The data reject the presence of unit roots at most seasonal frequencies in a large fraction of the series considered.
|Date of creation:||Aug 1992|
|Date of revision:|
|Publication status:||published as Beaulieu, J. Joseph and Jeffrey A. Miron. "Seasonal Unit Roots In Aggregate U.S. Data," Journal of Econometrics, 1993, v55(1/2), 305-328.|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: National Bureau of Economic Research, 1050 Massachusetts Avenue Cambridge, MA 02138, U.S.A.|
Web page: http://www.nber.org
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Osborn, Denise R., 1990. "A survey of seasonality in UK macroeconomic variables," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 6(3), pages 327-336, October.
- Beaulieu, J Joseph & Miron, Jeffrey A, 1992.
"A Cross Country Comparison of Seasonal Cycles and Business Cycles,"
Royal Economic Society, vol. 102(413), pages 772-88, July.
- J. Joseph Beaulieu & Jeffrey A. Miron, 1991. "A Cross Country Comparison of Seasonal Cycles and Business Cycles," Papers 0011, Boston University - Industry Studies Programme.
- Miron, J.A., 1988. "A Cross-Country Comparaison Of Seasonal Cycles And Business Cycles," Papers 89-07, Michigan - Center for Research on Economic & Social Theory.
- J. Joseph Beaulieu & Jeffrey A. Miron, 1990. "A Cross Country Comparison of Seasonal Cycles and Business Cycles," NBER Working Papers 3459, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Bhargava, Alok, 1990. "An Econometric Analysis of the U.S. Postwar G.N.P," Journal of Population Economics, Springer, vol. 3(2), pages 147-56, August.
- Danny Quah & Jeffrey M. Wooldridge, 1988. "A Common Error in the Treatment of Trending Time Series," Working papers 483, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
- Hylleberg, S. & Engle, R.F. & Granger, C.W.J. & Yoo, B.S., 1988.
"Seasonal, Integration And Cointegration,"
6-88-2, Pennsylvania State - Department of Economics.
- J. Joseph Beaulieu & Jeffrey A. Miron, 1990.
"The Seasonal Cycle in U.S. Manufacturing,"
NBER Working Papers
3450, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Engle, R. F. & Granger, C. W. J. & Hallman, J. J., 1989. "Merging short-and long-run forecasts : An application of seasonal cointegration to monthly electricity sales forecasting," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 45-62, January.
- Barsky, Robert B & Miron, Jeffrey A, 1989.
"The Seasonal Cycle and the Business Cycle,"
Journal of Political Economy,
University of Chicago Press, vol. 97(3), pages 503-34, June.
- Park, Joon Y. & Phillips, Peter C.B., 1988.
"Statistical Inference in Regressions with Integrated Processes: Part 1,"
Cambridge University Press, vol. 4(03), pages 468-497, December.
- Peter C.B. Phillips & Joon Y. Park, 1986. "Statistical Inference in Regressions with Integrated Processes: Part 1," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 811R, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, revised Aug 1987.
- Ghysels, Eric & Lee, Hahn S. & Noh, Jaesum, 1994. "Testing for unit roots in seasonal time series : Some theoretical extensions and a Monte Carlo investigation," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 62(2), pages 415-442, June.
- Schwert, G. William, 1987. "Effects of model specification on tests for unit roots in macroeconomic data," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 73-103, July.
- Peter C.B. Phillips, 1986. "Weak Convergence to the Matrix Stochastic Integral BdB," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 796, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
- Phillips, P C B, 1987.
"Time Series Regression with a Unit Root,"
Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 277-301, March.
- Tom Doan, . "PPUNIT: RATS procedure to perform Phillips-Perron Unit Root test," Statistical Software Components RTS00160, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Peter C.B. Phillips, 1985. "Time Series Regression with a Unit Root," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 740R, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, revised Feb 1986.
- Ghysels, E., 1987. "Unit Root Tests and the Statistical Pitfalls of Seasonal Adjustment: the Case of U.S. Post-War Real Gnp," Cahiers de recherche 8723, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nbr:nberte:0126. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ()
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.