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The Seasonal Cycle in U.S. Manufacturing

  • J. Joseph Beaulieu
  • Jeffrey A. Miron

    ()

This paper examines the seasonal cycle in the manufacturing sector of the U.S. economy. we present estimates of the seasonal patterns in monthly data for 2-digit industries, and we demonstrate the similarity of the seasonal cycle and the business cycle in manufacturing with respect to several key stylized facts about business cycles. The results are an important addition to those in Barsky and Miron (1989) because the monthly data for manufacturing display interesting seasonal fluctuations that are hidden in the quarterly data examined by Barsky and Miron. The most significant is a sharp slowdown in July followed by a significant rebound in August. We argue that this event is not easily explained by technology or preference shifts but instead results from synergies across economic agents.

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Paper provided by Boston University - Industry Studies Programme in its series Papers with number 0012.

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Date of creation: Aug 1990
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:fth:bostin:0012
Contact details of provider: Postal: Boston University, Industry Studies Program; Department of Economics, 270 Bay Road, Boston, Massachusetts 02215.
Phone: 617-353-4389
Fax: 617-353-4449
Web page: http://www.bu.edu/econ/isp/
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