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Seasonality in U.S. disability applications, labor market, and the pandemic echoes

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  • Lahiri, Kajal
  • Yin, Yimeng

Abstract

This paper examines the seasonality in the U.S. Social Security disability applications, and shows that the monthly disability applications exhibit a double-peak seasonal pattern which lags a similar seasonal pattern in unemployment and unemployment insurance initial claims by one to two months. The broad seasonal patterns in disability applications are remarkably similar across states but with significant heterogeneity in amplitudes, which seems to be associated with climatic factors. We utilize this inter-state heterogeneity to show that the seasonal patterns in disability applications and labor market conditions are correlated even after controlling for climatic effects. We also show that the seasonally in disability applications generated by the automatic settings of the widely used seasonal adjustment program X13 ARIMA-SEATS are distorted during the COVID-19 pandemic and the pattern of the distortion is similar to that in employment data.

Suggested Citation

  • Lahiri, Kajal & Yin, Yimeng, 2024. "Seasonality in U.S. disability applications, labor market, and the pandemic echoes," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:labeco:v:87:y:2024:i:c:s092753712400006x
    DOI: 10.1016/j.labeco.2024.102510
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Seasonality; Social Security Disability Insurance; Supplemental Security Income; COVID-19; Seasonal echoes; X13-ARIMA-SEATS;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • I18 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health
    • I38 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty - - - Government Programs; Provision and Effects of Welfare Programs
    • H55 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Social Security and Public Pensions
    • J64 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Unemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job Search
    • J68 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Public Policy

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