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COVID19 and Seasonal Adjustment

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  • Barend Abeln
  • Jan P.A.M. Jacobs

Abstract

The COVID19 crisis has a huge impact on economies all over the world. In this note we compare seasonal adjustments of X13 and CAMPLET before and after the COVID19 crisis. We show results of Quasi Real Time analyses for the quarterly series real GDP and the monthly series Consumption of Households in the Netherlands, and STL and CAMPLET seasonal adjustments for the weekly series US Initial Claims. We find that differences in SA values are generally small and that X13 and STL seasonal adjustments are subject to revision. From the analysis of the weekly series initial claims we learn that STL and CAMPLET SAs follow NSA values closely. In addition, the COVID19 crisis caused a structural increase in initial claims. Before the crisis initial claims fluctuated around a lower level than after the crisis.

Suggested Citation

  • Barend Abeln & Jan P.A.M. Jacobs, 2021. "COVID19 and Seasonal Adjustment," CIRANO Working Papers 2021s-05, CIRANO.
    • Handle: RePEc:cir:cirwor:2021s-05
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    1. Barend Abeln & Jan P. A. M. Jacobs, 2023. "Seasonal Adjustment of Daily Data with CAMPLET," SpringerBriefs in Economics, in: Seasonal Adjustment Without Revisions, chapter 0, pages 63-78, Springer.
    2. Irma Hindrayanto & Jan Jacobs & Denise Osborn, 2014. "On trend-cycle-seasonal interactions," DNB Working Papers 417, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
    3. Pierce, David A & Grupe, Michael R & Cleveland, William P, 1984. "Seasonal Adjustment of the Weekly Monetary Aggregates: A Model-based Approach," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 2(3), pages 260-270, July.
    4. Ghysels,Eric & Osborn,Denise R., 2001. "The Econometric Analysis of Seasonal Time Series," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521565882, Enero-Abr.
    5. Barend Abeln & Jan P. A. M. Jacobs, 2023. "CAMPLET: Seasonal Adjustment Without Revisions," SpringerBriefs in Economics, in: Seasonal Adjustment Without Revisions, chapter 0, pages 7-29, Springer.
    6. Hylleberg, Svend, 1986. "Seasonality in Regression," Elsevier Monographs, Elsevier, edition 1, number 9780123634559 edited by Shell, Karl.
    7. Andrea Carriero & Todd E. Clark & Massimiliano Marcellino & Elmar Mertens, 2024. "Addressing COVID-19 Outliers in BVARs with Stochastic Volatility," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 106(5), pages 1403-1417, September.
    8. Harvey, Andrew & Koopman, Siem Jan & Riani, Marco, 1997. "The Modeling and Seasonal Adjustment of Weekly Observations," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 15(3), pages 354-368, July.
    9. Siem Jan Koopman & Marius Ooms, 2003. "Time Series Modelling of Daily Tax Revenues," Statistica Neerlandica, Netherlands Society for Statistics and Operations Research, vol. 57(4), pages 439-469, November.
    10. Hindrayanto, Irma & Jacobs, Jan P.A.M. & Osborn, Denise R. & Tian, Jing, 2019. "Trend–Cycle–Seasonal Interactions: Identification And Estimation," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 23(8), pages 3163-3188, December.
    11. Daniel J. Lewis & Karel Mertens & James H. Stock & Mihir Trivedi, 2022. "Measuring real activity using a weekly economic index," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 37(4), pages 667-687, June.
    12. Proietti, Tommaso & Pedregal, Diego J., 2023. "Seasonality in High Frequency Time Series," Econometrics and Statistics, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 62-82.
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    Cited by:

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    3. Peter A.G. Van Bergeijk, 2022. "The Political Economy of the Next Pandemic," Review of Economic Analysis, Digital Initiatives at the University of Waterloo Library, vol. 14(1), pages 27-49, April.
    4. Simone di Paolo & Danilo Liberati, 2024. "Seasonal adjustment of credit time series in the Bank of Italy," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 835, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.

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    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity

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