IDEAS home Printed from
   My bibliography  Save this article

Trend–Cycle–Seasonal Interactions: Identification And Estimation


  • Hindrayanto, Irma
  • Jacobs, Jan P.A.M.
  • Osborn, Denise R.
  • Tian, Jing


Economists typically use seasonally adjusted data in which the assumption is imposed that seasonality is uncorrelated with trend and cycle. The importance of this assumption has been highlighted by the Great Recession. The paper examines an unobserved components model that permits nonzero correlations between seasonal and nonseasonal shocks. Identification conditions for estimation of the parameters are discussed from the perspectives of both analytical and simulation results. Applications to UK household consumption expenditures and US employment reject the zero correlation restrictions and also show that the correlation assumptions imposed have important implications about the evolution of the trend and cycle in the post-Great Recession period.

Suggested Citation

  • Hindrayanto, Irma & Jacobs, Jan P.A.M. & Osborn, Denise R. & Tian, Jing, 2019. "Trend–Cycle–Seasonal Interactions: Identification And Estimation," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 23(8), pages 3163-3188, December.
  • Handle: RePEc:cup:macdyn:v:23:y:2019:i:8:p:3163-3188_5

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL:
    File Function: link to article abstract page
    Download Restriction: no

    More about this item


    Access and download statistics


    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cup:macdyn:v:23:y:2019:i:8:p:3163-3188_5. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Keith Waters). General contact details of provider: .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.