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COVID-19 and seasonal adjustment

Author

Listed:
  • Barend Abeln
  • Jan P.A.M. Jacobs

Abstract

The COVID19 crisis has a huge impact on economies all over the world. In this note we compare seasonal adjustments of X13 and CAMPLET before and after the COVID19 crisis. We show results of Quasi Real Time analyses for the quarterly series real GDP and the monthly series Consumption of Households in the Netherlands, and STL and CAMPLET seasonal adjustments for the weekly series US Initial Claims. We find that differences in SA values are generally small and that X13 and STL seasonal adjustments are subject to revision. From the analysis of the weekly series initial claims, we learn that STL and CAMPLET SAs follow NSA values closely. In addition, the COVID19 crisis caused a structural increase in initial claims. Before the crisis initial claims fluctuated around a lower level than after the crisis.

Suggested Citation

  • Barend Abeln & Jan P.A.M. Jacobs, 2021. "COVID-19 and seasonal adjustment," CAMA Working Papers 2021-23, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    • Handle: RePEc:een:camaaa:2021-23
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    File URL: https://crawford.anu.edu.au/sites/default/files/2025-06/23_2021_Abeln_Jacobs.pdf
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    Cited by:

    1. van Bergeijk, P.A.G., 2021. "The political economy of the next pandemic," ISS Working Papers - General Series 678, International Institute of Social Studies of Erasmus University Rotterdam (ISS), The Hague.
    2. Simone di Paolo & Danilo Liberati, 2024. "Seasonal adjustment of credit time series in the Bank of Italy," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 835, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    3. William M. Doerner & Wenzhen Lin, 2022. "Applying Seasonal Adjustments to Housing Markets," FHFA Staff Working Papers 22-03, Federal Housing Finance Agency.
    4. Lahiri, Kajal & Yin, Yimeng, 2024. "Seasonality in U.S. disability applications, labor market, and the pandemic echoes," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity

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