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Modelling the daily banknotes in circulation in the context of the liquidity management of the European Central Bank

Author

Listed:
  • Alberto Cabrero

    () (Banco de España)

  • Gonzalo Camba-Mendez

    () (European Central Bank)

  • Astrid Hirsch

    () (European Central Bank)

  • Fernando Nieto

    () (Banco de España)

Abstract

The main focus of this paper is to model the daily series of banknotes in circulation in the context of the liquidity management of the Eurosystem. The series of banknotes in circulation displays very marked seasonal patterns. T o the best of our knowledge the empirical performance of tw o competing approaches to model seasonality in daily time series, namely the ARIMA-based approach and the Structural Time Series approach, has never been put to the test. The application presented in this paper provides valid intuition on the merits of eac happroach. The forecasting performance of the models is also assessed in the context of their impact on the liquidity management of the Eurosystem.

Suggested Citation

  • Alberto Cabrero & Gonzalo Camba-Mendez & Astrid Hirsch & Fernando Nieto, 2002. "Modelling the daily banknotes in circulation in the context of the liquidity management of the European Central Bank," Working Papers 0211, Banco de España;Working Papers Homepage.
  • Handle: RePEc:bde:wpaper:0211
    as

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    File URL: http://www.bde.es/f/webbde/SES/Secciones/Publicaciones/PublicacionesSeriadas/DocumentosTrabajo/02/Fic/dt0211e.pdf
    File Function: First version, May 2002
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Pierce, David A & Grupe, Michael R & Cleveland, William P, 1984. "Seasonal Adjustment of the Weekly Monetary Aggregates: A Model-based Approach," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 2(3), pages 260-270, July.
    2. Siem Jan Koopman & Marius Ooms, 2003. "Time Series Modelling of Daily Tax Revenues," Statistica Neerlandica, Netherlands Society for Statistics and Operations Research, vol. 57(4), pages 439-469.
    3. Bindseil, Ulrich & Seitz, Franz, 2001. "The supply and demand for Eurosystem deposits - The first 18 months," Working Paper Series 0044, European Central Bank.
    4. Clemen, Robert T., 1989. "Combining forecasts: A review and annotated bibliography," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 5(4), pages 559-583.
    5. Harvey, Andrew & Koopman, Siem Jan & Riani, Marco, 1997. "The Modeling and Seasonal Adjustment of Weekly Observations," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 15(3), pages 354-368, July.
    6. Diebold, Francis X & Mariano, Roberto S, 2002. "Comparing Predictive Accuracy," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 134-144, January.
    7. Andrews, Donald W K, 1991. "Heteroskedasticity and Autocorrelation Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(3), pages 817-858, May.
    8. Bindseil, Ulrich, 2001. "Central bank forecasts of liquidity factors: Quality, publication and the control of the overnight rate," Working Paper Series 0070, European Central Bank.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Marek Hlavacek & Michael Konak & Josef Cada, 2005. "The Application of Structured Feedforward Neural Networks to the Modelling of Daily Series of Currency in Circulation," Working Papers 2005/11, Czech National Bank, Research Department.
    2. Seitz, Franz & Fischer, Björn & Köhler, Petra, 2004. "The demand for euro area currencies: past, present and future," Working Paper Series 330, European Central Bank.
    3. Deinhammer, Harald & Ladi, Anna, 2017. "Modelling euro banknote quality in circulation," Occasional Paper Series 204, European Central Bank.
    4. Syed Kalim Hyder Bukhari & Abdul Jalil & Nasir Hamid Rao, 2011. "Detection and Forecasting of Islamic Calendar Effects in Time Series Data: Revisited," SBP Working Paper Series 39, State Bank of Pakistan, Research Department.
    5. Assenmacher, Katrin & Seitz, Franz & Tenhofen, Jörn, 2017. "The use of large denomination banknotes in Switzerland," International Cash Conference 2017 – War on Cash: Is there a Future for Cash? 162917, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    6. Ioana Florentina SAVU, 2011. "Developing Partnership between National Bank of Romania and Universities," REVISTA DE MANAGEMENT COMPARAT INTERNATIONAL/REVIEW OF INTERNATIONAL COMPARATIVE MANAGEMENT, Faculty of Management, Academy of Economic Studies, Bucharest, Romania, vol. 12(3), pages 565-574, July.
    7. Bindseil, Ulrich & Nyborg, Kjell G., 2007. "Monetary policy implementation: A European Perspective," Discussion Papers 2007/10, Norwegian School of Economics, Department of Business and Management Science.
    8. Martin-Rodriguez, Gloria & Caceres-Hernandez, Jose Juan, 2012. "Forecasting weekly Canary tomato exports from annual surface data," 2012 Conference, August 18-24, 2012, Foz do Iguacu, Brazil 126364, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    9. Ioana Florentina SAVU, 2011. "National Bank of Romania Management in Time of Financial Crisis," REVISTA DE MANAGEMENT COMPARAT INTERNATIONAL/REVIEW OF INTERNATIONAL COMPARATIVE MANAGEMENT, Faculty of Management, Academy of Economic Studies, Bucharest, Romania, vol. 12(5), pages 1013-1021, December.
    10. Bindseil, Ulrich & Camba-Mendez, Gonzalo & Hirsch, Astrid & Weller, Benedict, 2006. "Excess reserves and the implementation of monetary policy of the ECB," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 28(5), pages 491-510, July.
    11. Erica Rizziato, 2010. "La Formazione-sviluppo per la creazione di moderne comunità lavorative [Developmnt-training to create working communities]," CERIS Working Paper 201003, Institute for Economic Research on Firms and Growth - Moncalieri (TO) ITALY -NOW- Research Institute on Sustainable Economic Growth - Moncalieri (TO) ITALY.
    12. Antonio Noriega & Carlos Capistrán & Manuel Ramos-Francia, 2013. "On the dynamics of inflation persistence around the world," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 44(3), pages 1243-1265, June.
    13. Diego Elías & Matías Vicens, 2012. "Bills and Coins Daily Demand Forecast," Ensayos Económicos, Central Bank of Argentina, Economic Research Department, vol. 1(65-66), pages 23-39, September.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Daily Forecast; Liquidity Management; ARIMA modelling; State Space modelling; Seasonality; Cubic Splines;

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • C59 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Other

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