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Monetary Policy and Models of Currency Demand

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  • Mariam El Hamiani Khatat

Abstract

Two types of currency in circulation models are identified: (1) a first generation derived from the theory of money demand and (2) a second generation aimed at producing daily forecasts of currency in circulation. In this paper, we transform the currency demand function into a VAR to capture the dynamic link between interest rates and the demand for cash. We also apply ARIMA modeling to forecast the daily currency in circulation for Brazil, Kazakhstan, Morocco, New Zealand, and Sudan. Our empirical work shows that some of the conclusions in the economic literature on the impact of interest rates on the demand for currency do not necessarily hold, and that central banks would benefit from running both generations of currency in circulation models. The fundamental longer-run determinants of the demand for cash are distinct from its short-run determinants.

Suggested Citation

  • Mariam El Hamiani Khatat, 2018. "Monetary Policy and Models of Currency Demand," IMF Working Papers 2018/028, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2018/028
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    1. Emanuele Borgonovo & Stefano Caselli & Alessandra Cillo & Donato Masciandaro, 2018. "Between Cash, Deposit And Bitcoin: Would We Like A Central Bank Digital Currency? Money Demand And Experimental Economics," BAFFI CAREFIN Working Papers 1875, BAFFI CAREFIN, Centre for Applied Research on International Markets Banking Finance and Regulation, Universita' Bocconi, Milano, Italy.
    2. Afsin Sahin, 2019. "Loom of Symmetric Pass-Through," Economies, MDPI, vol. 7(1), pages 1-25, February.
    3. Serhan Cevik, 2020. "Dirty money: Does the risk of infectious disease lower demand for cash?," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 23(3), pages 460-471, December.
    4. Emanuele Borgonovo & Stefano Caselli & Alessandra Cillo & Donato Masciandaro & Giovanno Rabitti, 2018. "Cryptocurrencies, central bank digital cash, traditional money: does privacy matter?," BAFFI CAREFIN Working Papers 1895, BAFFI CAREFIN, Centre for Applied Research on International Markets Banking Finance and Regulation, Universita' Bocconi, Milano, Italy.

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