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The demand for euro banknotes in Germany: Structural modelling and forecasting

Listed author(s):
  • Bartzsch, Nikolaus
  • Seitz, Franz
  • Setzer, Ralph

This paper explains and forecasts the demand for banknotes issued in Germany. For small and large denomination notes we estimate vector error correction models (VECM). The results suggest that the long-run demand for German small denomination notes is mainly driven by domestic transactions and demand from outside the euro area. The transaction motive in the rest of the euro area is part of the short-term dynamics. The long-run demand for German large denomination notes is mainly driven by foreign demand both from the rest of the euro area and outside the EMU. The global financial crisis led to a one-time increase in the (real) demand for these notes. Our results are in line with estimates according to which the level and dynamics of banknote demand are mainly determined by foreign demand. Additionally, we present RegARIMA models for the medium denominations as it was not possible to build a VECM for these denominations.

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File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/64949/1/MPRA_paper_64949.pdf
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Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 64949.

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Date of creation: 10 Jun 2015
Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:64949
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  1. Seitz, Franz & Fischer, Björn & Köhler, Petra, 2004. "The demand for euro area currencies: past, present and future," Working Paper Series 330, European Central Bank.
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  8. Bartzsch, Nikolaus & Rösl, Gerhard & Seitz, Franz, 2011. "Foreign demand for euro banknotes issued in Germany: Estimation using indirect approaches," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2011,21e, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
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  11. Bartzsch, Nikolaus & Rösl, Gerhard & Seitz, Franz, 2011. "Foreign demand for euro banknotes issued in Germany: Estimation using direct approaches," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2011,20e, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
  12. Schneider, Friedrich, 2002. "The Size and Development of the Shadow Economies of 22 Transition and 21 OECD Countries," IZA Discussion Papers 514, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  13. Gene Amromin & Sujit Chakravorti, 2009. "Whither Loose Change? The Diminishing Demand for Small-Denomination Currency," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 41(2-3), pages 315-335, 03.
  14. Friedman, Milton, 1977. " Time Perspective in Demand for Money," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 79(4), pages 397-416.
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