IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pra/mprapa/64949.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The demand for euro banknotes in Germany: Structural modelling and forecasting

Author

Listed:
  • Bartzsch, Nikolaus
  • Seitz, Franz
  • Setzer, Ralph

Abstract

This paper explains and forecasts the demand for banknotes issued in Germany. For small and large denomination notes we estimate vector error correction models (VECM). The results suggest that the long-run demand for German small denomination notes is mainly driven by domestic transactions and demand from outside the euro area. The transaction motive in the rest of the euro area is part of the short-term dynamics. The long-run demand for German large denomination notes is mainly driven by foreign demand both from the rest of the euro area and outside the EMU. The global financial crisis led to a one-time increase in the (real) demand for these notes. Our results are in line with estimates according to which the level and dynamics of banknote demand are mainly determined by foreign demand. Additionally, we present RegARIMA models for the medium denominations as it was not possible to build a VECM for these denominations.

Suggested Citation

  • Bartzsch, Nikolaus & Seitz, Franz & Setzer, Ralph, 2015. "The demand for euro banknotes in Germany: Structural modelling and forecasting," MPRA Paper 64949, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:64949
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/64949/1/MPRA_paper_64949.pdf
    File Function: original version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Fischer, Björn & Köhler-Ulbrich, Petra & Seitz, Franz, 2004. "The demand for euro area currencies: past, present and future," Working Paper Series 330, European Central Bank.
    2. B. Bhaskara Rao, 2007. "Estimating short and long-run relationships: a guide for the applied economist," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 39(13), pages 1613-1625.
    3. Zivot, Eric & Andrews, Donald W K, 2002. "Further Evidence on the Great Crash, the Oil-Price Shock, and the Unit-Root Hypothesis," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 25-44, January.
    4. William J. Baumol, 1952. "The Transactions Demand for Cash: An Inventory Theoretic Approach," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 66(4), pages 545-556.
    5. Brian M. Doyle, 2000. "\"Here, dollars, dollars ...\"estimating currency demand and worldwide currency substitution," International Finance Discussion Papers 657, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    6. Ozge Akinci, 2003. "Modeling the Demand for Currency Issued in Turkey," Central Bank Review, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, vol. 3(1), pages 1-25.
    7. Fernando Alvarez & Francesco Lippi, 2009. "Financial Innovation and the Transactions Demand for Cash," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 77(2), pages 363-402, March.
    8. Seitz, Franz, 1995. "The circulation of Deutsche Mark abroad," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 1995,01e, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    9. Milton Friedman & Anna J. Schwartz, 1982. "Money and Interest Rates," NBER Chapters, in: Monetary Trends in the United States and United Kingdom: Their Relation to Income, Prices, and Interest Rates, 1867–1975, pages 477-587, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Bartzsch, Nikolaus & Rösl, Gerhard & Seitz, Franz, 2011. "Der Auslandsumlauf deutscher Euro-Banknoten: Schätzung mit indirekten Ansätzen," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2011,21, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    11. Friedman, Milton & Schwartz, Anna J, 1982. "The Effect of the Term Structure of Interest Rates on the Demand for Money in the United States," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 90(1), pages 201-212, February.
    12. Bartzsch, Nikolaus & Rösl, Gerhard & Seitz, Franz, 2011. "Foreign demand for euro banknotes issued in Germany: Estimation using direct approaches," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2011,20e, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    13. Gene Amromin & Sujit Chakravorti, 2009. "Whither Loose Change? The Diminishing Demand for Small‐Denomination Currency," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 41(2‐3), pages 315-335, March.
    14. Friedman, Milton, 1977. " Time Perspective in Demand for Money," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 79(4), pages 397-416.
    15. MacKinnon, James G, 1996. "Numerical Distribution Functions for Unit Root and Cointegration Tests," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(6), pages 601-618, Nov.-Dec..
    16. repec:zbw:bofrdp:1999_008 is not listed on IDEAS
    17. Johansen, Soren, 2000. "Modelling of cointegration in the vector autoregressive model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 359-373, August.
    18. Pagan, Adrian, 1984. "Econometric Issues in the Analysis of Regressions with Generated Regressors," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 25(1), pages 221-247, February.
    19. Engle, R. F. & Granger, C. W. J. (ed.), 1991. "Long-Run Economic Relationships: Readings in Cointegration," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198283393.
    20. Tamas Briglevics & Scott Schuh, 2013. "U.S. consumer demand for cash in the era of low interest rates and electronic payments," Working Papers 13-23, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
    21. Johansen, Soren, 1995. "Likelihood-Based Inference in Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Models," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198774501.
    22. Tom Cusbert & Thomas Rohling, 2013. "Currency Demand during the Global Financial Crisis: Evidence from Australia," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2013-01, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    23. repec:zbw:bofrdp:2000_001 is not listed on IDEAS
    24. Schneider, Friedrich, 2002. "The Size and Development of the Shadow Economies of 22 Transition and 21 OECD Countries," IZA Discussion Papers 514, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    25. repec:zbw:bofrdp:99_008 is not listed on IDEAS
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. António Rua, 2019. "Modelling the Demand for Euro Banknotes," Working Papers w201905, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    2. Rua, António, 2018. "Modelling currency demand in a small open economy within a monetary union," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 88-96.
    3. Camila Figueroa & Michael Pedersen, 2017. "Forecasting Demand for Denominations of Chilean Coins and Banknotes," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 799, Central Bank of Chile.
    4. Luca Baldo & Elisa Bonifacio & Marco Brandi & Michelina Lo Russo & Gianluca Maddaloni & Andrea Nobili & Giorgia Rocco & Gabriele Sene & Massimo Valentini, 2021. "Inside the black box: tools for understanding cash circulation," Mercati, infrastrutture, sistemi di pagamento (Markets, Infrastructures, Payment Systems) 7, Bank of Italy, Directorate General for Markets and Payment System.
    5. Seitz, Franz & Krueger, Malte, 2017. "The Blessing of Cash," International Cash Conference 2017 – War on Cash: Is there a Future for Cash? 162911, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    6. Altmann, Markus & Bartzsch, Nikolaus, 2014. "The volume of euro coins held for transaction purposes in Germany," MPRA Paper 59542, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Arkadiusz Manikowski, 2017. "Analysis of the denomination structure of the Polish currency in the context of the launch of the new 500 zloty banknote," Bank i Kredyt, Narodowy Bank Polski, vol. 48(5), pages 495-530.
    8. André Cardoso Dias, 2019. "Estimating a country’s currency circulation within a monetary union," IFC Bulletins chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Are post-crisis statistical initiatives completed?, volume 49, Bank for International Settlements.
    9. Gros, Daniel, 2017. "Implications of the Expanding Use of Cash for Monetary Policy," CEPS Papers 12661, Centre for European Policy Studies.
    10. António Rua, 2021. "Modelling currency demand: the case of the euro," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 61(4), pages 1865-1881, October.
    11. Ollech, Daniel, 2018. "Seasonal adjustment of daily time series," Discussion Papers 41/2018, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    12. Camila Figueroa S. & Michael Pedersen, 2019. "A system for forecasting Chilean cash demand – the role of forecast combinations," Journal Economía Chilena (The Chilean Economy), Central Bank of Chile, vol. 22(2), pages 040-068, August.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Rua, António, 2018. "Modelling currency demand in a small open economy within a monetary union," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 88-96.
    2. António Rua, 2019. "Modelling the Demand for Euro Banknotes," Working Papers w201905, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    3. Luca Baldo & Elisa Bonifacio & Marco Brandi & Michelina Lo Russo & Gianluca Maddaloni & Andrea Nobili & Giorgia Rocco & Gabriele Sene & Massimo Valentini, 2021. "Inside the black box: tools for understanding cash circulation," Mercati, infrastrutture, sistemi di pagamento (Markets, Infrastructures, Payment Systems) 7, Bank of Italy, Directorate General for Markets and Payment System.
    4. Hans-Eggert Reimers & Friedrich Schneider & Franz Seitz, 2020. "Payment Innovations, the Shadow Economy and Cash Demand of Households in Euro Area Countries," CESifo Working Paper Series 8574, CESifo.
    5. Assenmacher, Katrin & Seitz, Franz & Tenhofen, Jörn, 2017. "The use of large denomination banknotes in Switzerland," International Cash Conference 2017 – War on Cash: Is there a Future for Cash? 162917, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    6. Camila Figueroa S. & Michael Pedersen, 2019. "A system for forecasting Chilean cash demand – the role of forecast combinations," Journal Economía Chilena (The Chilean Economy), Central Bank of Chile, vol. 22(2), pages 040-068, August.
    7. John Bagnall & David Bounie & Kim P. Huynh & Anneke Kosse & Tobias Schmidt & Scott Schuh, 2016. "Consumer Cash Usage: A Cross-Country Comparison with Payment Diary Survey Data," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 12(4), pages 1-61, December.
    8. Cem Saatçioðlu & Levent Korap, 2007. "Turkish Money Demand, Revisited: Some Implications For Inflation And Currency Substitution Under Structural Breaks," Bogazici Journal, Review of Social, Economic and Administrative Studies, Bogazici University, Department of Economics, vol. 21(1+2), pages 107-124.
    9. Lalouette, Laure & Zamora-Pérez, Alejandro & Rusu, Codruta & Bartzsch, Nikolaus & Politronacci, Emmanuelle & Delmas, Martial & Rua, António & Brandi, Marco & Naksi, Martti, 2021. "Foreign demand for euro banknotes," Occasional Paper Series 253, European Central Bank.
    10. Columba, Francesco, 2009. "Narrow money and transaction technology: New disaggregated evidence," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 61(4), pages 312-325, July.
    11. Schmidt-Dengler, Philipp & Stix, Helmut & Huynh, Kim P., 2014. "The Role of Card Acceptance in the Transaction Demand for Money," CEPR Discussion Papers 10183, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    12. Francesco Flaviano Russo, 2020. "Cash Thresholds, Cash Expenditure and Tax Evasion," CSEF Working Papers 579, Centre for Studies in Economics and Finance (CSEF), University of Naples, Italy.
    13. Immordino, Giovanni & Russo, Francesco Flaviano, 2018. "Cashless payments and tax evasion," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 36-43.
    14. Zou, Gao Lu, 2012. "The long-term relationships among China's energy consumption sources and adjustments to its renewable energy policy," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 456-467.
    15. Camila Figueroa & Michael Pedersen, 2017. "Forecasting Demand for Denominations of Chilean Coins and Banknotes," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 799, Central Bank of Chile.
    16. Hanna Armelius & Carl Andreas Claussen & André Reslow, 2022. "Withering Cash: Is Sweden Ahead of the Curve or Just Special?," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 18(4), pages 1-52, October.
    17. Tobias Trütsch, 2020. "The impact of contactless payment on cash usage at an early stage of diffusion," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics, Springer;Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics, vol. 156(1), pages 1-35, December.
    18. Saten Kumar & Don J. Webber, 2013. "Australasian money demand stability: application of structural break tests," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(8), pages 1011-1025, March.
    19. Bartzsch, Nikolaus & Rösl, Gerhard & Seitz, Franz, 2013. "Currency movements within and outside a currency union: The case of Germany and the euro area," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 53(4), pages 393-401.
    20. Altmann, Markus & Bartzsch, Nikolaus, 2014. "Der Transaktionskassenbestand von Euro-Münzen in Deutschland [The volume of euro coins held for transaction purposes in Germany]," MPRA Paper 59545, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    banknotes; vector error correction; RegARIMA; forecasts;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E41 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Demand for Money

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:64949. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Joachim Winter (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/vfmunde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.