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Modelling currency demand in a small open economy within a monetary union

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  • Rua, António

Abstract

Currency management is a core business function of a central bank. Understanding the factors driving cash demand and its denomination structure are vital for the smooth functioning of the economy. We pursue an analytical framework which allows to model the demand for each denomination individually as well as to capture the interactions between them, both over the short- and long-run. The approach builds on the DSUR estimator for the long-run relationships coupled with a SUR ECM for modelling the short-run dynamics. The focus is on a small open economy within the euro area monetary union. Such a context adds dimensions which go beyond the traditional drivers considered in the previous literature. In particular, the importance of currency migration through tourism flows is highlighted. Furthermore, the interconnections between demand for different denominations are found to be quite significant and the heterogeneous role of the determinants across denominations is documented.

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  • Rua, António, 2018. "Modelling currency demand in a small open economy within a monetary union," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 88-96.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:74:y:2018:i:c:p:88-96
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2018.05.004
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    Cited by:

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    2. António Rua, 2019. "Modelling the Demand for Euro Banknotes," Working Papers w201905, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    3. Luca Baldo & Elisa Bonifacio & Marco Brandi & Michelina Lo Russo & Gianluca Maddaloni & Andrea Nobili & Giorgia Rocco & Gabriele Sene & Massimo Valentini, 2021. "Inside the black box: tools for understanding cash circulation," Mercati, infrastrutture, sistemi di pagamento (Markets, Infrastructures, Payment Systems) 7, Bank of Italy, Directorate General for Markets and Payment System.
    4. Bo Yang & Minhaj Ali & Shujahat Haider Hashmi & Mohsin Shabir, 2020. "Income Inequality and CO 2 Emissions in Developing Countries: The Moderating Role of Financial Instability," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(17), pages 1-24, August.
    5. Franz Seitz & Hans-Eggert Reimers & Friedrich Schneider, 2018. "Cash in Circulation and the Shadow Economy: An Empirical Investigation for Euro Area Countries and Beyond," CESifo Working Paper Series 7143, CESifo.
    6. Brian Micallef & Tiziana Gauci, "undated". "Excess demand for banknotes in Malta," CBM Policy Papers PP/02/2022, Central Bank of Malta.
    7. André Cardoso Dias, 2019. "Estimating a country’s currency circulation within a monetary union," IFC Bulletins chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Are post-crisis statistical initiatives completed?, volume 49, Bank for International Settlements.
    8. Hans-Eggert Reimers & Friedrich Schneider & Franz Seitz, 2020. "Payment Innovations, the Shadow Economy and Cash Demand of Households in Euro Area Countries," CESifo Working Paper Series 8574, CESifo.
    9. Vicente Ríos & Antonio Gómez & Pedro Pascual, 2021. "Raising the Accuracy of Shadow Economy Measurements," Hacienda Pública Española / Review of Public Economics, IEF, vol. 239(4), pages 71-125, November.
    10. Lalouette, Laure & Zamora-Pérez, Alejandro & Rusu, Codruta & Bartzsch, Nikolaus & Politronacci, Emmanuelle & Delmas, Martial & Rua, António & Brandi, Marco & Naksi, Martti, 2021. "Foreign demand for euro banknotes," Occasional Paper Series 253, European Central Bank.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Currency demand; Monetary union; DSUR; SUR ECM;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E41 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Demand for Money
    • E50 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - General

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