IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/ecmode/v74y2018icp88-96.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Modelling currency demand in a small open economy within a monetary union

Author

Listed:
  • Rua, António

Abstract

Currency management is a core business function of a central bank. Understanding the factors driving cash demand and its denomination structure are vital for the smooth functioning of the economy. We pursue an analytical framework which allows to model the demand for each denomination individually as well as to capture the interactions between them, both over the short- and long-run. The approach builds on the DSUR estimator for the long-run relationships coupled with a SUR ECM for modelling the short-run dynamics. The focus is on a small open economy within the euro area monetary union. Such a context adds dimensions which go beyond the traditional drivers considered in the previous literature. In particular, the importance of currency migration through tourism flows is highlighted. Furthermore, the interconnections between demand for different denominations are found to be quite significant and the heterogeneous role of the determinants across denominations is documented.

Suggested Citation

  • Rua, António, 2018. "Modelling currency demand in a small open economy within a monetary union," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 88-96.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:74:y:2018:i:c:p:88-96
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2018.05.004
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0264999318301020
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.econmod.2018.05.004?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. repec:bla:intfin:v:3:y:2000:i:2:p:211-27 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Fischer, Björn & Köhler-Ulbrich, Petra & Seitz, Franz, 2004. "The demand for euro area currencies: past, present and future," Working Paper Series 330, European Central Bank.
    3. Nelson C. Mark & Masao Ogaki & Donggyu Sul, 2005. "Dynamic Seemingly Unrelated Cointegrating Regressions," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 72(3), pages 797-820.
    4. Bartzsch, Nikolaus & Seitz, Franz & Setzer, Ralph, 2015. "The demand for euro banknotes in Germany: Structural modelling and forecasting," MPRA Paper 64949, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Orazio P. Attanasio & Luigi Guiso & Tullio Jappelli, 2002. "The Demand for Money, Financial Innovation, and the Welfare Cost of Inflation: An Analysis with Household Data," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 110(2), pages 317-351, April.
    6. Gene Amromin & Sujit Chakravorti, 2009. "Whither Loose Change? The Diminishing Demand for Small-Denomination Currency," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 41(2-3), pages 315-335, March.
    7. Lippi, Francesco & Secchi, Alessandro, 2009. "Technological change and the households' demand for currency," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(2), pages 222-230, March.
    8. Peter C. B. Phillips & Mico Loretan, 1991. "Estimating Long-run Economic Equilibria," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 58(3), pages 407-436.
    9. Judson, Ruth A. & Porter, Richard D., 2004. "Currency demand by federal reserve cash office: what do we know?," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 56(4), pages 273-285.
    10. Friedrich Schneider & Dominik Enste, 1999. "Shadow Economies Around the World - Size, Causes, and Consequences," CESifo Working Paper Series 196, CESifo.
    11. T. S. Breusch & A. R. Pagan, 1980. "The Lagrange Multiplier Test and its Applications to Model Specification in Econometrics," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 47(1), pages 239-253.
    12. Leandro Medina & Mr. Friedrich Schneider, 2018. "Shadow Economies Around the World: What Did We Learn Over the Last 20 Years?," IMF Working Papers 2018/017, International Monetary Fund.
    13. M. Hashem Pesaran, 2021. "General diagnostic tests for cross-sectional dependence in panels," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 60(1), pages 13-50, January.
    14. William J. Baumol, 1952. "The Transactions Demand for Cash: An Inventory Theoretic Approach," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 66(4), pages 545-556.
    15. Brian M. Doyle, 2000. "\"Here, dollars, dollars ...\"estimating currency demand and worldwide currency substitution," International Finance Discussion Papers 657, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    16. Goldfeld, Stephen M. & Sichel, Daniel E., 1990. "The demand for money," Handbook of Monetary Economics, in: B. M. Friedman & F. H. Hahn (ed.), Handbook of Monetary Economics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 8, pages 299-356, Elsevier.
    17. Mankiw, N Gregory & Summers, Lawrence H, 1986. "Money Demand and the Effects of Fiscal Policies," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 18(4), pages 415-429, November.
    18. Fernando Alvarez & Francesco Lippi, 2009. "Financial Innovation and the Transactions Demand for Cash," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 77(2), pages 363-402, March.
    19. Stock, James H & Watson, Mark W, 1993. "A Simple Estimator of Cointegrating Vectors in Higher Order Integrated Systems," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(4), pages 783-820, July.
    20. Bartzsch, Nikolaus & Rösl, Gerhard & Seitz, Franz, 2013. "Currency movements within and outside a currency union: The case of Germany and the euro area," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 53(4), pages 393-401.
    21. repec:bla:intfin:v:3:y:2000:i:2:p:229-60 is not listed on IDEAS
    22. Sargent, Thomas J & Velde, Francois R, 1999. "The Big Problem of Small Change," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 31(2), pages 137-161, May.
    23. Bartzsch, Nikolaus & Rösl, Gerhard & Seitz, Franz, 2011. "Foreign demand for euro banknotes issued in Germany: Estimation using indirect approaches," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2011,21e, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    24. M. Hashem Pesaran, 2015. "Testing Weak Cross-Sectional Dependence in Large Panels," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(6-10), pages 1089-1117, December.
    25. Kenneth Rogoff, 1998. "Blessing or curse? Foreign and underground demand for euro notes," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 13(26), pages 262-303.
    26. Shin, Yongcheol, 1994. "A Residual-Based Test of the Null of Cointegration Against the Alternative of No Cointegration," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 10(1), pages 91-115, March.
    27. Michael Woodford, 2000. "Monetary Policy in a World Without Money," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 3(2), pages 229-260, July.
    28. Duca, John V & Whitesell, William C, 1995. "Credit Cards and Money Demand: A Cross-sectional Study," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 27(2), pages 604-623, May.
    29. Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
    30. Phillips, P C B, 1991. "Optimal Inference in Cointegrated Systems," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(2), pages 283-306, March.
    31. Tom Cusbert & Thomas Rohling, 2013. "Currency Demand during the Global Financial Crisis: Evidence from Australia," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2013-01, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    32. Benjamin M. Friedman, 1999. "The Future of Monetary Policy: The Central Bank as an Army with Only a Signal Corps?," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 2(3), pages 321-338, November.
    33. McElroy, Marjorie B., 1977. "Goodness of fit for seemingly unrelated regressions : Glahn's R2y.x and Hooper's r2," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 6(3), pages 381-387, November.
    34. Charles A. E. Goodhart, 2000. "Can Central Banking Survive the IT Revolution?," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 3(2), pages 189-209, July.
    35. Jayasri Dutta & Martin Weale, 2001. "Consumption and the Means of Payment: An Empirical Analysis for the United Kingdom," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 68(271), pages 293-316, August.
    36. Jussi Snellman & Jukka Vesala & David Humphrey, 2001. "Substitution of Noncash Payment Instruments for Cash in Europe," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 19(2), pages 131-145, April.
    37. Bartzsch, Nikolaus & Rösl, Gerhard & Seitz, Franz, 2011. "Foreign demand for euro banknotes issued in Germany: Estimation using direct approaches," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2011,20e, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    38. Ruth A. Judson & Richard D. Porter, 1996. "The location of U.S. currency: how much is abroad?," Federal Reserve Bulletin, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.), vol. 82(Oct), pages 883-903, October.
    39. Boeschoten, Willem C & Fase, Martin M G, 1992. "The Demand for Large Bank Notes," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 24(3), pages 319-337, August.
    40. Benjamin M. Friedman, 1999. "The Future of Monetary Policy: The Central Bank as an Army With Only a Signal Corps," NBER Working Papers 7420, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    41. Dominik H. Enste & Friedrich Schneider, 2000. "Shadow Economies: Size, Causes, and Consequences," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 38(1), pages 77-114, March.
    42. repec:bla:intfin:v:2:y:1999:i:3:p:321-38 is not listed on IDEAS
    43. Bartzsch, Nikolaus & Rösl, Gerhard & Seitz, Franz, 2013. "Estimating the foreign circulation of banknotes," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 119(2), pages 165-167.
    44. Stock, James H, 1987. "Asymptotic Properties of Least Squares Estimators of Cointegrating Vectors," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(5), pages 1035-1056, September.
    45. Lucas, Robert E, Jr, 1980. "Equilibrium in a Pure Currency Economy," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 18(2), pages 203-220, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Franz Seitz & Lucas Devigne & Raymond de Pastor, 2022. "Different Motives for Holding Cash in France: an Analysis of the Net Cash Issues of the Banque de France," Working papers 888, Banque de France.
    2. António Rua, 2019. "Modelling the Demand for Euro Banknotes," Working Papers w201905, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    3. Luca Baldo & Elisa Bonifacio & Marco Brandi & Michelina Lo Russo & Gianluca Maddaloni & Andrea Nobili & Giorgia Rocco & Gabriele Sene & Massimo Valentini, 2021. "Inside the black box: tools for understanding cash circulation," Mercati, infrastrutture, sistemi di pagamento (Markets, Infrastructures, Payment Systems) 7, Bank of Italy, Directorate General for Markets and Payment System.
    4. Bo Yang & Minhaj Ali & Shujahat Haider Hashmi & Mohsin Shabir, 2020. "Income Inequality and CO 2 Emissions in Developing Countries: The Moderating Role of Financial Instability," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(17), pages 1-24, August.
    5. Franz Seitz & Hans-Eggert Reimers & Friedrich Schneider, 2018. "Cash in Circulation and the Shadow Economy: An Empirical Investigation for Euro Area Countries and Beyond," CESifo Working Paper Series 7143, CESifo.
    6. Brian Micallef & Tiziana Gauci, "undated". "Excess demand for banknotes in Malta," CBM Policy Papers PP/02/2022, Central Bank of Malta.
    7. André Cardoso Dias, 2019. "Estimating a country’s currency circulation within a monetary union," IFC Bulletins chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Are post-crisis statistical initiatives completed?, volume 49, Bank for International Settlements.
    8. Hans-Eggert Reimers & Friedrich Schneider & Franz Seitz, 2020. "Payment Innovations, the Shadow Economy and Cash Demand of Households in Euro Area Countries," CESifo Working Paper Series 8574, CESifo.
    9. Vicente Ríos & Antonio Gómez & Pedro Pascual, 2021. "Raising the Accuracy of Shadow Economy Measurements," Hacienda Pública Española / Review of Public Economics, IEF, vol. 239(4), pages 71-125, November.
    10. Lalouette, Laure & Zamora-Pérez, Alejandro & Rusu, Codruta & Bartzsch, Nikolaus & Politronacci, Emmanuelle & Delmas, Martial & Rua, António & Brandi, Marco & Naksi, Martti, 2021. "Foreign demand for euro banknotes," Occasional Paper Series 253, European Central Bank.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. António Rua, 2019. "Modelling the Demand for Euro Banknotes," Working Papers w201905, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    2. Luca Baldo & Elisa Bonifacio & Marco Brandi & Michelina Lo Russo & Gianluca Maddaloni & Andrea Nobili & Giorgia Rocco & Gabriele Sene & Massimo Valentini, 2021. "Inside the black box: tools for understanding cash circulation," Mercati, infrastrutture, sistemi di pagamento (Markets, Infrastructures, Payment Systems) 7, Bank of Italy, Directorate General for Markets and Payment System.
    3. Elena Sinelnikova-Muryleva, 2011. "Innovations in the sphere of payments and the money demand in Russia," Research Paper Series, Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy, issue 157P.
    4. Hans-Eggert Reimers & Friedrich Schneider & Franz Seitz, 2020. "Payment Innovations, the Shadow Economy and Cash Demand of Households in Euro Area Countries," CESifo Working Paper Series 8574, CESifo.
    5. Katrin Assenmacher & Franz Seitz & Jörn Tenhofen, 2019. "The demand for Swiss banknotes: some new evidence," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics, Springer;Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics, vol. 155(1), pages 1-22, December.
    6. Bartzsch, Nikolaus & Seitz, Franz & Setzer, Ralph, 2015. "The demand for euro banknotes in Germany: Structural modelling and forecasting," MPRA Paper 64949, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Columba, Francesco, 2009. "Narrow money and transaction technology: New disaggregated evidence," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 61(4), pages 312-325, July.
    8. Seitz, Franz & Krueger, Malte, 2017. "The Blessing of Cash," International Cash Conference 2017 – War on Cash: Is there a Future for Cash? 162911, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    9. Geoffrey R. Dunbar, 2019. "Demographics and the demand for currency," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 57(4), pages 1375-1409, October.
    10. Assenmacher, Katrin & Seitz, Franz & Tenhofen, Jörn, 2017. "The use of large denomination banknotes in Switzerland," International Cash Conference 2017 – War on Cash: Is there a Future for Cash? 162917, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    11. Gene Amromin & Sujit Chakravorti, 2007. "Debit card and cash usage: a cross-country analysis," Working Paper Series WP-07-04, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
    12. Gene Amromin & Sujit Chakravorti, 2009. "Whither Loose Change? The Diminishing Demand for Small‐Denomination Currency," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 41(2‐3), pages 315-335, March.
    13. António Rua, 2021. "Modelling currency demand: the case of the euro," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 61(4), pages 1865-1881, October.
    14. Lalouette, Laure & Zamora-Pérez, Alejandro & Rusu, Codruta & Bartzsch, Nikolaus & Politronacci, Emmanuelle & Delmas, Martial & Rua, António & Brandi, Marco & Naksi, Martti, 2021. "Foreign demand for euro banknotes," Occasional Paper Series 253, European Central Bank.
    15. Benati, Luca & Lucas, Robert E. & Nicolini, Juan Pablo & Weber, Warren, 2021. "International evidence on long-run money demand," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 43-63.
    16. Benchimol, Jonathan & Qureshi, Irfan, 2020. "Time-varying money demand and real balance effects," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 197-211.
    17. John Bagnall & David Bounie & Kim P. Huynh & Anneke Kosse & Tobias Schmidt & Scott Schuh, 2016. "Consumer Cash Usage: A Cross-Country Comparison with Payment Diary Survey Data," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 12(4), pages 1-61, December.
    18. Immordino, Giovanni & Russo, Francesco Flaviano, 2018. "Cashless payments and tax evasion," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 36-43.
    19. Ramírez, Juan & Vásquez, José & Pereda, Javier, 2015. "Determinants of the Demand for Cash in Peru: A Non Linear Approach," Working Papers 2015-006, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú.
    20. Tobias Trütsch, 2020. "The impact of contactless payment on cash usage at an early stage of diffusion," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics, Springer;Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics, vol. 156(1), pages 1-35, December.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Currency demand; Monetary union; DSUR; SUR ECM;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E41 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Demand for Money
    • E50 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - General

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:74:y:2018:i:c:p:88-96. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/30411 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.