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The demand for euro area currencies: past, present and future

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  • Seitz, Franz
  • Fischer, Björn
  • Köhler, Petra

Abstract

The present paper analyses currency in circulation in the euro area since the beginning of the 1980s. After a comprehensive literature review on this topic we present some stylised facts on currency holdings in the euro area countries as well as at an aggregate euro area level. The next chapter develops a theoretical model, which extends traditional money demand models to also incorporate arguments for the informal economy and foreign demand for specific currencies. In the empirical sections we first estimate the demand for euro legacy currencies in total and for small and large denominations within a cointegration framework. We find significant differences between the determinants of holdings of small and large denominations as well as overall currency demand. While small-value banknotes are mainly driven by domestic transactions, the demand for large-value banknotes depends on a short-term interest rate, the exchange rate of the euro as a proxy for foreign demand and inflation variability. Large-value banknotes seem to be therefore used to an important extent as a store of value domestically and abroad. As monetary policy is mainly interested in getting information on the demand for currency used for domestic transactions we also try several approaches in this direction. All the methods applied result in rather low levels of transaction balances used within the euro area of around 25% to 35% of total currency. After this we deal with possibly changing cost-benefit-considerations of the use of cash due to the introduction of euro notes and coins. Overall, there seems no evidence so far of a substantial decline of the demand for currency in the euro area. JEL Classification: E41, E52, E58

Suggested Citation

  • Seitz, Franz & Fischer, Björn & Köhler, Petra, 2004. "The demand for euro area currencies: past, present and future," Working Paper Series 330, European Central Bank.
  • Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:2004330
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    File URL: https://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/pdf/scpwps/ecbwp330.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. John Bagnall & David Bounie & Kim P. Huynh & Anneke Kosse & Tobias Schmidt & Scott Schuh, 2016. "Consumer Cash Usage: A Cross-Country Comparison with Payment Diary Survey Data," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 12(4), pages 1-61, December.
    2. Quintano, Claudio & Mazzocchi, Paolo, 2013. "The shadow economy beyond European public governance," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 37(4), pages 650-670.
    3. Columba, Francesco, 2009. "Narrow money and transaction technology: New disaggregated evidence," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 61(4), pages 312-325, July.
    4. Seitz, Franz, 2007. "A simple way to capture transaction balances," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 95(2), pages 230-233, May.
    5. Mickaël Clévenot & Yann Guy & Jacques Mazier, 2009. "Equity and debt in a financialised economy: the French case," Working Papers hal-00435685, HAL.
    6. Mickaël Clevenot & Yann Guy & Jacques Mazier, 2010. "Investment and the rate of profit in a financial context: the French case," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(6), pages 693-714.
    7. Bartzsch, Nikolaus & Rösl, Gerhard & Seitz, Franz, 2013. "Currency movements within and outside a currency union: The case of Germany and the euro area," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 53(4), pages 393-401.
    8. Bartzsch, Nikolaus & Rösl, Gerhard & Seitz, Franz, 2013. "Estimating the foreign circulation of banknotes," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 119(2), pages 165-167.
    9. Bartzsch, Nikolaus & Seitz, Franz & Setzer, Ralph, 2015. "The demand for euro banknotes in Germany: Structural modelling and forecasting," MPRA Paper 64949, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Kenneth Rogoff, 2015. "Costs and Benefits to Phasing out Paper Currency," NBER Macroeconomics Annual, University of Chicago Press, vol. 29(1), pages 445-456.
    11. Eugene Amromin & Sujit Chakravorti, 2007. "Debit card and cash usage: a cross-country analysis," Working Paper Series WP-07-04, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
    12. Altmann, Markus & Bartzsch, Nikolaus, 2014. "The volume of euro coins held for transaction purposes in Germany," MPRA Paper 59542, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Assenmacher, Katrin & Seitz, Franz & Tenhofen, Jörn, 2017. "The use of large denomination banknotes in Switzerland," International Cash Conference 2017 – War on Cash: Is there a Future for Cash? 162917, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    14. Cronin, David & McGuinness, Anne, 2010. "Retail Payment Practices. How They Have Evolved in Recent Times and Where They Might Be Going," Quarterly Bulletin Articles, Central Bank of Ireland, pages 56-82, April.
    15. Rita Odorán & Balázs Sisak, 2008. "Cash demand of the Hungarian economy – is the shadow economy still running smoothly?," MNB Bulletin (discontinued), Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary), vol. 3(3), pages 19-25, December.
    16. Nicole Jonker, 2005. "Payment Instruments as Perceived by Consumers - a Public Survey," DNB Working Papers 053, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
    17. Ulrich Thiessen, 2010. "The Shadow Economy in International Comparison: Options for Economic Policy Derived from an OECD Panel Analysis," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(4), pages 481-509.
    18. Balázs Égert & Doris Ritzberger-Grünwald & Maria Antoinette Silgoner, 2004. "Inflation Differentials in Europe: Past Experience and Future Prospects," Monetary Policy & the Economy, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 1, pages 47-72.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    cointegration; currency in circulation; purposes of holding currency;

    JEL classification:

    • E41 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Demand for Money
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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