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U.S. domestic money, inflation and output

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  • Aksoy, Yunus
  • Piskorski, Tomasz

Abstract

Recent empirical research documents that the strong short-term relationship between U.S. monetary aggregates on one side and inflation and real output on the other has mostly disappeared since the early 1980s. Using the direct estimate of flows of USD abroad we find that domestic money (currency corrected for the foreign holdings of dollars) contains valuable information about future movements of U.S. inflation and real output. Statistical evidence suggests that the Friedman-Schwartz stylized facts can be reestablished once the focus of analysis is back on the correct measure of domestic monetary aggregates.
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  • Aksoy, Yunus & Piskorski, Tomasz, 2006. "U.S. domestic money, inflation and output," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(2), pages 183-197, March.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:moneco:v:53:y:2006:i:2:p:183-197
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    Cited by:

    1. Calza Alessandro & Zaghini Andrea, 2011. "Welfare Costs of Inflation and the Circulation of U.S. Currency Abroad," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, pages 1-21.
    2. Michael Funke & Aaron Mehrotra & Hao Yu, 2015. "Tracking Chinese CPI inflation in real time," Empirical Economics, Springer, pages 1619-1641.
    3. Aksoy, Yunus & León-Ledesma, Miguel A., 2005. "Interest rates and output in the long-run," Working Paper Series 434, European Central Bank.
    4. Claudiu Tiberiu Albulescu & Daniel Goyeau & Cornel Oros, 2015. "On the Long Run Money-Prices Relationship in CEE Countries," Economic Research Guardian, Weissberg Publishing, vol. 5(1), pages 73-96, June.
    5. Michael Graff, 2008. "The Quantity Theory of Money in Historical Perspective," KOF Working papers 08-196, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich.
    6. Calza, Alessandro & Zaghini, Andrea, 2011. "Welfare costs of inflation and the circulation of US currency abroad," Working Paper Series 1326, European Central Bank.
    7. Fungáčová, Zuzana & Herrala, Risto & Weill, Laurent, 2013. "The influence of bank ownership on credit supply: Evidence from the recent financial crisis," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, pages 136-147.
    8. Jiranyakul, Komain, 2009. "Relationship among Money, Prices and Aggregate Output in Thailand," MPRA Paper 46963, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. El-Shagi, Makram & Giesen, Sebastian, 2013. "Money and inflation: Consequences of the recent monetary policy," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 520-537.
    10. Seitz, Franz & Rösl, Gerhard & Bartzsch, Nikolaus, 2011. "Currency movements within and outside a currency union: The case of Germany and the euro area," Weidener Diskussionspapiere 30, University of Applied Sciences Amberg-Weiden (OTH).
    11. Carlos Esteban Posada & Andrés Felipe García, 2006. "¿No importa la cantidad de dinero?: "Inflation Targeting" y la teoría cuantitativa," Borradores de Economia 403, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    12. Bartzsch, Nikolaus & Rösl, Gerhard & Seitz, Franz, 2013. "Estimating the foreign circulation of banknotes," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 119(2), pages 165-167.
    13. Stephan B. Bruns & David I. Stern, 2015. "Meta-Granger causality testing," CAMA Working Papers 2015-22, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    14. Tang, Maggie May-Jean & Puah, Chin-Hong & Awang Marikan, Dayang-Affizzah, 2013. "Empirical Evidence on the Long-Run Neutrality Hypothesis Using Divisia Money," MPRA Paper 50020, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Feige, Edgar L., 2011. "New estimates of U.S. currency abroad, the domestic money supply and the unreported Economy," MPRA Paper 34778, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    16. Albuquerque, Bruno & Baumann, Ursel & Seitz, Franz, 2016. "What does money and credit tell us about real activity in the United States?," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 328-347.
    17. Seitz, Franz & Fischer, Björn & Köhler, Petra, 2004. "The demand for euro area currencies: past, present and future," Working Paper Series 330, European Central Bank.
    18. Yunus AKSOY & Miguel LEON-LEDESMA, "undated". "Interest Rates and Output in the Long Run," EcoMod2004 330600006, EcoMod.
    19. Ackon, Kwabena, 2015. "US Domestic Money, Output, Inflation and Unemployment," MPRA Paper 68095, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    20. Bartzsch, Nikolaus & Rösl, Gerhard & Seitz, Franz, 2013. "Currency movements within and outside a currency union: The case of Germany and the euro area," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 53(4), pages 393-401.
    21. Funke, Michael & Paetz, Michael, 2013. "Housing prices and the business cycle: An empirical application to Hong Kong," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, pages 62-76.
    22. Calza Alessandro & Zaghini Andrea, 2011. "Welfare Costs of Inflation and the Circulation of U.S. Currency Abroad," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, pages 1-21.
    23. Aksoy, Yunus & Piskorski, Tomasz, 2005. "US domestic currency in forecast error variance decompositions of inflation and output," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 86(2), pages 265-271, February.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E3 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
    • E4 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates
    • E5 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit

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