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US Fiscal Indicators, Inflation and Output

Author

Listed:
  • Yunus Aksoy
  • Giovanni Melina

    (Department of Economics, Mathematics & Statistics, Birkbeck)

Abstract

In this paper we explore the information content of a large set of fiscal indicators for US real output growth and inflation. We provide evidence that fluctuations in certain fiscal variables contain valuable information to predict fluctuations in output and prices. The distinction between federal and state-local fiscal indicators yields useful insights and helps define a new set of stylized facts for US macroeconomic conditions. First, we find that variations in state-local indirect taxes as well as state government surplus or deficit help predict output growth. Next, the federal counterparts of these indicators contain valuable information for inflation. Finally, state-local expenditures help predict US inflation. A set of formal and informal stability tests confirm that these relationships are stable. The fiscal indicators in questions are also among the ones that yield the best in-sample and out-of-sample performances.

Suggested Citation

  • Yunus Aksoy & Giovanni Melina, 2009. "US Fiscal Indicators, Inflation and Output," Birkbeck Working Papers in Economics and Finance 0918, Birkbeck, Department of Economics, Mathematics & Statistics.
    • Handle: RePEc:bbk:bbkefp:0918
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    File URL: https://eprints.bbk.ac.uk/id/eprint/7603
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    Cited by:

    1. is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Olusola Oyeleke & Monica Orisadare, 2018. "Relative Importance of Public Debts and Money Growth on Inflation in Nigeria," International Journal of Economics and Finance, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 10(7), pages 1-99, July.
    3. Ismail O. Fasanya & Ayinke Fajobi & Abiodun Adetokunbo, 2021. "Are Fiscal Deficits Inflationary In Nigeria? New Evidence From Bounds Testing To Cointegration With Structural Breaks," Economic Annals, Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Belgrade, vol. 66(228), pages 123-148, January –.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory

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