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U.S. Domestic Money, Inflation and Output

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  • Yunus Aksoy
  • Tomasz Piskorski

Abstract

Recent empirical research found that the strong short-term relationship between monetary aggregates and US real output and inflation, as outlined in the classical study by M. Friedman and Schwartz, mostly disappeared since the early 1980s. In the light of the B. Friedman and Kuttner (1992) information value approach, we reevaluate the vanishing relationship between US monetary aggregates and these macroeconomic fundamentals by taking into account the international currency feature of the US dollar. In practice, by using official US data for foreign flows constructed by Porter and Judson (1996) we find that domestic money (currency component of M1 corrected for the foreign holdings of dollars) contains valuable information about future movements of US real output and inflation. Statistical evidence here provided thus suggests that the Friedman and Schwartz's stylized facts can be reestablished once the focus of analysis is back on the domestic monetary aggregates.

Suggested Citation

  • Yunus Aksoy & Tomasz Piskorski, 2004. "U.S. Domestic Money, Inflation and Output," Macroeconomics 0401007, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpma:0401007
    Note: Type of Document - pdf; prepared on WinXP; pages: 49; figures: 11
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Benjamin M. Friedman & Kenneth N. Kuttner, 1996. "A Price Target for U.S. Monetary Policy? Lessons from the Experience with Money Growth Targets," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 27(1), pages 77-146.
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    8. Jefferson, Philip N., 2000. "'Home' base and monetary base rules: elementary evidence from the 1980s and 1990s," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 52(1-2), pages 161-180.
    9. Edgar L. Feige, 2005. "Overseas Holdings Of U.S.Currency And The Underground Economy," Macroeconomics 0501022, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Brian M. Doyle, 2000. ""Here, dollars, dollars ..."estimating currency demand and worldwide currency substitution," International Finance Discussion Papers 657, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    11. Andrews, Donald W K, 1993. "Tests for Parameter Instability and Structural Change with Unknown Change Point," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(4), pages 821-856, July.
    12. Estrella, Arturo & Mishkin, Frederic S., 1997. "Is there a role for monetary aggregates in the conduct of monetary policy?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(2), pages 279-304, October.
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    Cited by:

    1. Calza Alessandro & Zaghini Andrea, 2011. "Welfare Costs of Inflation and the Circulation of U.S. Currency Abroad," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 11(1), pages 1-21, May.
    2. Michael Funke & Aaron Mehrotra & Hao Yu, 2015. "Tracking Chinese CPI inflation in real time," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 48(4), pages 1619-1641, June.
    3. Yunus AKSOY & Miguel LEON-LEDESMA, "undated". "Interest Rates and Output in the Long Run," EcoMod2004 330600006, EcoMod.
    4. Claudiu Tiberiu Albulescu & Daniel Goyeau & Cornel Oros, 2015. "On the Long Run Money-Prices Relationship in CEE Countries," Economic Research Guardian, Weissberg Publishing, vol. 5(1), pages 73-96, June.
    5. Michael Graff, 2008. "The Quantity Theory of Money in Historical Perspective," KOF Working papers 08-196, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich.
    6. Jiranyakul, Komain, 2009. "Relationship among Money, Prices and Aggregate Output in Thailand," MPRA Paper 46963, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. El-Shagi, Makram & Giesen, Sebastian, 2013. "Money and inflation: Consequences of the recent monetary policy," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 520-537.
    8. Bartzsch, Nikolaus & Rösl, Gerhard & Seitz, Franz, 2013. "Currency movements within and outside a currency union: The case of Germany and the euro area," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 53(4), pages 393-401.
    9. Carlos Esteban Posada & Andrés Felipe García, 2006. "¿No importa la cantidad de dinero?: "Inflation Targeting" y la teoría cuantitativa," Borradores de Economia 403, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    10. Bartzsch, Nikolaus & Rösl, Gerhard & Seitz, Franz, 2013. "Estimating the foreign circulation of banknotes," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 119(2), pages 165-167.
    11. Stephan B. Bruns & David I. Stern, 2015. "Meta-Granger causality testing," CAMA Working Papers 2015-22, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    12. Tang, Maggie May-Jean & Puah, Chin-Hong & Awang Marikan, Dayang-Affizzah, 2013. "Empirical Evidence on the Long-Run Neutrality Hypothesis Using Divisia Money," MPRA Paper 50020, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Feige, Edgar L., 2011. "New estimates of U.S. currency abroad, the domestic money supply and the unreported Economy," MPRA Paper 34778, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Albuquerque, Bruno & Baumann, Ursel & Seitz, Franz, 2016. "What does money and credit tell us about real activity in the United States?," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 328-347.
    15. repec:taf:apeclt:v:24:y:2017:i:5:p:355-358 is not listed on IDEAS
    16. Seitz, Franz & Fischer, Björn & Köhler, Petra, 2004. "The demand for euro area currencies: past, present and future," Working Paper Series 330, European Central Bank.
    17. Nkrumah, Kwabena Meneabe, 2015. "US Domestic Money, Output, Inflation and Unemployment," MPRA Paper 68095, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    18. Aksoy, Yunus & Piskorski, Tomasz, 2005. "US domestic currency in forecast error variance decompositions of inflation and output," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 86(2), pages 265-271, February.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Foreign holdings; US monetary aggregates; information value; Friedman-Schwartz's evidence;

    JEL classification:

    • E3 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
    • E4 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates
    • E5 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit

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