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Testing for Granger (non)-Causality in a Time Varying Coefficient VAR Model

Listed author(s):
  • Dimitris K. Christopoulos
  • Miguel Leon-Ledesma

    ()

In this paper we propose Granger (non-)causality tests based on a VAR model allowing for time-varying coefficients. The functional form of the time-varying coefficients is a Logistic Smooth Transition Autoregressive (LSTAR) model using time as the transition variable. The model allows for testing Granger non-causality when the VAR is subject to a smooth break in the coefficients of the Granger causal variables. The proposed test then is applied to the money-output relationship using quarterly US data for the period 1952:2-2002:4. We find that causality from money to output becomes stronger after 1978:4 and the model is shown to have a good out of sample forecasting performance for output relative to a linear VAR model.

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File URL: ftp://ftp.ukc.ac.uk/pub/ejr/RePEc/ukc/ukcedp/0802.pdf
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Paper provided by School of Economics, University of Kent in its series Studies in Economics with number 0802.

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Date of creation: Jan 2008
Handle: RePEc:ukc:ukcedp:0802
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School of Economics, University of Kent, Canterbury, Kent, CT2 7NP

Phone: +44 (0)1227 827497
Web page: http://www.kent.ac.uk/economics/

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  6. Rothman, P. & van Dijk, D.J.C. & Franses, Ph.H.B.F., 1999. "A multivariate STAR analysis of the relationship between money and output," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI 9945-/A, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
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  10. Christopher A. Sims & Tao Zha, 2006. "Were There Regime Switches in U.S. Monetary Policy?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(1), pages 54-81, March.
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  17. Rothman, Philip & van Dijk, Dick & null, Philip Hans, 2001. "Multivariate Star Analysis Of Money Output Relationship," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 5(04), pages 506-532, September.
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