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The power of tests of predictive ability in the presence of structural breaks

Listed author(s):
  • Clark, Todd E.
  • McCracken, Michael W.

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File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0304-4076(04)00024-7
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Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Econometrics.

Volume (Year): 124 (2005)
Issue (Month): 1 (January)
Pages: 1-31

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Handle: RePEc:eee:econom:v:124:y:2005:i:1:p:1-31
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jeconom

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  3. Ghysels, Eric & Hall, Alastair, 1990. "A Test for Structural Stability of Euler Conditions Parameters Estimated via the Generalized Method of Moments Estimator," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 31(2), pages 355-364, May.
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  7. Kilian, Lutz & Taylor, Mark P., 2003. "Why is it so difficult to beat the random walk forecast of exchange rates?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(1), pages 85-107, May.
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  9. Clark, Todd E. & McCracken, Michael W., 2001. "Tests of equal forecast accuracy and encompassing for nested models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 105(1), pages 85-110, November.
  10. Inoue, Atsushi & Kilian, Lutz, 2006. "On the selection of forecasting models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 130(2), pages 273-306, February.
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  12. West, Kenneth D, 2001. "Tests for Forecast Encompassing When Forecasts Depend on Estimated Regression Parameters," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 19(1), pages 29-33, January.
  13. Paye, Bradley S. & Timmermann, Allan, 2002. "How Stable are Financial Prediction Models? Evidence from US and International Stock Market Data," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series qt74v515fr, Department of Economics, UC San Diego.
  14. Harvey, David I & Leybourne, Stephen J & Newbold, Paul, 1998. "Tests for Forecast Encompassing," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 16(2), pages 254-259, April.
  15. Min, Chung-ki & Zellner, Arnold, 1993. "Bayesian and non-Bayesian methods for combining models and forecasts with applications to forecasting international growth rates," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 56(1-2), pages 89-118, March.
  16. West, Kenneth D, 1996. "Asymptotic Inference about Predictive Ability," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(5), pages 1067-1084, September.
  17. White, Halbert, 1980. "A Heteroskedasticity-Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimator and a Direct Test for Heteroskedasticity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(4), pages 817-838, May.
  18. Andrews, Donald W K & Ploberger, Werner, 1994. "Optimal Tests When a Nuisance Parameter Is Present Only under the Alternative," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 62(6), pages 1383-1414, November.
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  20. Kuo, Biing-Shen & Mikkola, Anne, 1999. "Re-examining long-run purchasing power parity," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 251-266, February.
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  22. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2003. "Has the Business Cycle Changed and Why?," NBER Chapters,in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2002, Volume 17, pages 159-230 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  23. Diebold, Francis X & Mariano, Roberto S, 2002. "Comparing Predictive Accuracy," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 134-144, January.
  24. Stock, James H & Watson, Mark W, 1996. "Evidence on Structural Instability in Macroeconomic Time Series Relations," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 14(1), pages 11-30, January.
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  28. Massimiliano Marcellino, "undated". "Instability and non-linearity in the EMU," Working Papers 211, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
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  31. McCracken, Michael W., 2007. "Asymptotics for out of sample tests of Granger causality," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 140(2), pages 719-752, October.
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  33. Phillips, Peter C. B., 1995. "Bayesian model selection and prediction with empirical applications," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 69(1), pages 289-331, September.
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  35. Arturo Estrella & Anthony P. Rodrigues & Sebastian Schich, 2003. "How Stable is the Predictive Power of the Yield Curve? Evidence from Germany and the United States," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 85(3), pages 629-644, August.
  36. West, Kenneth D & McCracken, Michael W, 1998. "Regression-Based Tests of Predictive Ability," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 39(4), pages 817-840, November.
  37. Jushan Bai & Pierre Perron, 2003. "Computation and analysis of multiple structural change models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 18(1), pages 1-22.
  38. Meese, Richard A. & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1983. "Empirical exchange rate models of the seventies : Do they fit out of sample?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(1-2), pages 3-24, February.
  39. Kuo, Biing-Shen & Mikkola, Anne, 2001. "How Sure Are We about Purchasing Power Parity? Panel Evidence with the Null of Stationary Real Exchange Rates," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 33(3), pages 767-789, August.
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