Markov Switching Causality and the Money-Output Relationship
The empirical relationship between money and output is one of the most studied issues in macroeconomics, and a large literature has examined the causal links between monetary variables and output. One puzzle from this literature is that the results of causality tests appear to be sensitive with respect to the sample period that one considers. As a way of overcoming this problem, we propose a new method for analysing causal links that allows for changes in these links over the sample period. Our method is based on a VAR model with time-varying parameters. We model the time-variation in the parameters as reflecting changes in causality, and assume that these changes are stochastic and governed by an unobservable finite Markov chain. One important advantage of our method relative to alternative methods is that it allows for arbitrarily many changes in causal links during the sample and enables the identification of sample points at which causality has changed. When applied to US data, we obtain results that allow us to reconcile previous puzzling differences in the outcome of standard Granger causality tests.
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
|Date of creation:||Feb 2003|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Centre for Economic Policy Research, 77 Bastwick Street, London EC1V 3PZ.|
Phone: 44 - 20 - 7183 8801
Fax: 44 - 20 - 7183 8820
|Order Information:|| Email: |
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Thoma, Mark A., 1994. "Subsample instability and asymmetries in money-income causality," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 64(1-2), pages 279-306.
- Sola, Martin & Driffill, John, 1994. "Testing the term structure of interest rates using a stationary vector autoregression with regime switching," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 18(3-4), pages 601-628.
- Perron, P. & Bai, J., 1995.
"Estimating and Testing Linear Models with Multiple Structural Changes,"
Cahiers de recherche
9552, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
- Jushan Bai & Pierre Perron, 1998. "Estimating and Testing Linear Models with Multiple Structural Changes," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 66(1), pages 47-78, January.
- Perron, P. & Bai, J., 1995. "Estimating and Testing Linear Models with Multiple Structural Changes," Cahiers de recherche 9552, Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en économie quantitative, CIREQ.
- David K. Backus & Patrick J. Kehoe, 1991.
"International evidence on the historical properties of business cycles,"
145, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
- Backus, David K & Kehoe, Patrick J, 1992. "International Evidence of the Historical Properties of Business Cycles," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(4), pages 864-88, September.
- David K. Backus & Patrick J. Kehoe, 1992. "International Evidence on the Historical Properties of Business Cycles," Working Papers 92-5, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business, Department of Economics.
- William T. Gavin & Finn E. Kydland, 1997.
"Endogenous money supply and the business cycle,"
1995-010, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
- Andrews, Donald W K, 1993.
"Tests for Parameter Instability and Structural Change with Unknown Change Point,"
Econometric Society, vol. 61(4), pages 821-56, July.
- Donald W.K. Andrews, 1990. "Tests for Parameter Instability and Structural Change with Unknown Change Point," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 943, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
- Ben S. Bernanke, 1986.
"Alternative Explanations of the Money-Income Correlation,"
NBER Working Papers
1842, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Bernanke, Ben S., 1986. "Alternative explanations of the money-income correlation," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 49-99, January.
- Kapetanios, G., 1999. "Model Selection in Threshold Models," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9906, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
- James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1994.
"Evidence on Structural Instability in Macroeconomic Time Series Relations,"
NBER Technical Working Papers
0164, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Stock, James H & Watson, Mark W, 1996. "Evidence on Structural Instability in Macroeconomic Time Series Relations," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 14(1), pages 11-30, January.
- James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1994. "Evidence on structural instability in macroeconomic times series relations," Working Paper Series, Macroeconomic Issues 94-13, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
- Christiano, Lawrence J. & Ljungqvist, Lars, 1988. "Money does Granger-cause output in the bivariate money-output relation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 217-235, September.
- Romano, Joseph P & Wolf, Michael, 2001.
"Subsampling Intervals in Autoregressive Models with Linear Time Trend,"
Econometric Society, vol. 69(5), pages 1283-1314, September.
- Wolf, Michael & Romano, Joseph P., 1999. "Subsampling intervals in autoregressive models with linear time trend," DES - Working Papers. Statistics and Econometrics. WS 6400, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Estadística.
- repec:oxf:wpaper:2000-w31 is not listed on IDEAS
- Krol, Robert & Ohanian, Lee E., 1990. "The impact of stochastic and deterministic trends on money-output causality : A multi-country investigation," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 45(3), pages 291-308.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:3803. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ()
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.