IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/empeco/v57y2019i4d10.1007_s00181-018-1486-8.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Demographics and the demand for currency

Author

Listed:
  • Geoffrey R. Dunbar

    (Bank of Canada)

Abstract

I use data from the Bank of Canada’s Bank Note Distribution System and exploit a natural experiment offered by the timing of Easter in the Gregorian calendar to analyse the effects of demographic change for bank note demand by financial institutions from the Bank of Canada. I find that the main drivers of low-denomination bank note demand are merchants. Merchants and the youngest age group, aged 15–24, are also a significant source of demand for twenty-dollar bank notes and for the total dollar value of withdrawals. In contrast, increases in the demographic age groups 25–54 and 55 plus tend to lower bank note withdrawals. Finally, I find no evidence that employment status is related to bank note demand, but that there is a difference between the bank note demand of men aged 15–24 and women aged 15–24: increases in the share of women aged 15–24 lead to increases in bank note demand.

Suggested Citation

  • Geoffrey R. Dunbar, 2019. "Demographics and the demand for currency," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 57(4), pages 1375-1409, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:empeco:v:57:y:2019:i:4:d:10.1007_s00181-018-1486-8
    DOI: 10.1007/s00181-018-1486-8
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s00181-018-1486-8
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s00181-018-1486-8?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Klee, Elizabeth, 2008. "How people pay: Evidence from grocery store data," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(3), pages 526-541, April.
    2. Merton H. Miller & Daniel Orr, 1966. "A Model of the Demand for Money by Firms," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 80(3), pages 413-435.
    3. Joshua D. Angrist & Alan B. Krueger, 2001. "Instrumental Variables and the Search for Identification: From Supply and Demand to Natural Experiments," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 15(4), pages 69-85, Fall.
    4. Fair, Ray C & Dominguez, Kathryn M, 1991. "Effects of the Changing U.S. Age Distribution on Macroeconomic Equations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(5), pages 1276-1294, December.
    5. Gene Amromin & Sujit Chakravorti, 2009. "Whither Loose Change? The Diminishing Demand for Small-Denomination Currency," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 41(2-3), pages 315-335, March.
    6. Orazio P. Attanasio & Luigi Guiso & Tullio Jappelli, 2002. "The Demand for Money, Financial Innovation, and the Welfare Cost of Inflation: An Analysis with Household Data," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 110(2), pages 317-351, April.
    7. Arango, Carlos & Huynh, Kim P. & Sabetti, Leonard, 2011. "How do you pay? The role of incentives at the point-of-sale," Working Paper Series 1386, European Central Bank.
    8. Paulo Rodrigues & Paulo Esteves, 2010. "Calendar effects in daily ATM withdrawals," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 30(4), pages 2587-2597.
    9. Geoffrey R. Dunbar & Chunling Fu, 2015. "Sheltered Income: Estimating Income Under-Reporting in Canada, 1998 and 2004," Staff Working Papers 15-22, Bank of Canada.
    10. Ron Borzekowski & K. Kiser Elizabeth & Ahmed Shaista, 2008. "Consumers' Use of Debit Cards: Patterns, Preferences, and Price Response," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 40(1), pages 149-172, February.
    11. Reynard, Samuel, 2004. "Financial market participation and the apparent instability of money demand," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(6), pages 1297-1317, September.
    12. Fujiki, Hiroshi, 2002. "Money Demand near Zero Interest Rate: Evidence from Regional Data," Monetary and Economic Studies, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, vol. 20(2), pages 25-41, April.
    13. Fischer, Andreas M., 2014. "Immigration And Large Banknotes," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 18(4), pages 899-919, June.
    14. Geoffrey R. Dunbar, 2013. "Seasonal adjustment, demography, and GDP growth," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 46(3), pages 811-835, August.
    15. Fernando Alvarez & Francesco Lippi, 2009. "Financial Innovation and the Transactions Demand for Cash," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 77(2), pages 363-402, March.
    16. Borzekowski, Ron & Kiser, Elizabeth K., 2008. "The choice at the checkout: Quantifying demand across payment instruments," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 26(4), pages 889-902, July.
    17. Woodford, Michael, 2000. "Monetary Policy in a World without Money," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 3(2), pages 229-260, July.
    18. Edward L. Whalen, 1966. "A Rationalization of the Precautionary Demand for Cash," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 80(2), pages 314-324.
    19. Marianne Bertrand & Esther Duflo & Sendhil Mullainathan, 2004. "How Much Should We Trust Differences-In-Differences Estimates?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 119(1), pages 249-275.
    20. Lee, Hahn Shik & Siklos, Pierre L., 1997. "The role of seasonality in economic time series reinterpreting money-output causality in U.S. data," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 13(3), pages 381-391, September.
    21. Card, David, 2001. "Immigrant Inflows, Native Outflows, and the Local Labor Market Impacts of Higher Immigration," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 19(1), pages 22-64, January.
    22. repec:fth:prinin:455 is not listed on IDEAS
    23. Michael Woodford, 2000. "Monetary Policy in a World Without Money," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 3(2), pages 229-260, July.
    24. Fischer, Andreas M., 2007. "Measuring income elasticity for Swiss money demand: What do the cantons say about financial innovation?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 51(7), pages 1641-1660, October.
    25. Jacob A. Frenkel & Boyan Jovanovic, 1980. "On Transactions and Precautionary Demand for Money," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 95(1), pages 25-43.
    26. Schuh, Scott & Stavins, Joanna, 2010. "Why are (some) consumers (finally) writing fewer checks? The role of payment characteristics," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(8), pages 1745-1758, August.
    27. Charles Goodhart, 2000. "Can Central Banking Survive the IT Revolution?," FMG Special Papers sp125, Financial Markets Group.
    28. Levitt, Steven D, 1997. "Using Electoral Cycles in Police Hiring to Estimate the Effect of Police on Crime," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 87(3), pages 270-290, June.
    29. Geoffrey R. Dunbar, 2013. "Seasonal adjustment, demography, and GDP growth," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 46(3), pages 811-835, August.
    30. Christopher Henry & Kim Huynh & Rallye Shen, 2015. "2013 Methods-of-Payment Survey Results," Discussion Papers 15-4, Bank of Canada.
    31. Joshua D. Angrist & Alan B. Keueger, 1991. "Does Compulsory School Attendance Affect Schooling and Earnings?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 106(4), pages 979-1014.
    32. Casey B. Mulligan & Xavier Sala-I-Martin, 1992. "U.S. Money Demand: Surprising Cross-Sectional Estimates," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 23(2), pages 285-343.
    33. Joshua Angrist & Alan Krueger, 2001. "Instrumental Variables and the Search for Identification: From Supply and Demand to Natural Experiments," Working Papers 834, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Industrial Relations Section..
    34. Benjamin M. Friedman, 1999. "The Future of Monetary Policy: The Central Bank as an Army With Only a Signal Corps," NBER Working Papers 7420, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    35. Arnold, Ivo J.M. & Roelands, Sebastian, 2010. "The demand for euros," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 674-684, June.
    36. Friedman, Benjamin M, 1999. "The Future of Monetary Policy: The Central Bank as an Army with Only a Signal Corps?," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 2(3), pages 321-338, November.
    37. Casey B. Mulligan & Xavier Sala-i-Martin, 2000. "Extensive Margins and the Demand for Money at Low Interest Rates," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 108(5), pages 961-991, October.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Geoffrey R. Dunbar, 2014. "Demographics and the Demand for Currency," Staff Working Papers 14-59, Bank of Canada.
    2. John Bagnall & David Bounie & Kim P. Huynh & Anneke Kosse & Tobias Schmidt & Scott Schuh, 2016. "Consumer Cash Usage: A Cross-Country Comparison with Payment Diary Survey Data," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 12(4), pages 1-61, December.
    3. Rua, António, 2018. "Modelling currency demand in a small open economy within a monetary union," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 88-96.
    4. Korhonen, Tapio, 2001. "Finnish monetary and foreign exchange policy and the changeover to the euro," Research Discussion Papers 25/2001, Bank of Finland.
    5. Fischer, Andreas M., 2014. "Immigration And Large Banknotes," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 18(4), pages 899-919, June.
    6. Gene Amromin & Sujit Chakravorti, 2009. "Whither Loose Change? The Diminishing Demand for Small‐Denomination Currency," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 41(2‐3), pages 315-335, March.
    7. Ulf Kalckreuth & Tobias Schmidt & Helmut Stix, 2014. "Choosing and using payment instruments: evidence from German microdata," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 46(3), pages 1019-1055, May.
    8. Benchimol, Jonathan & Qureshi, Irfan, 2020. "Time-varying money demand and real balance effects," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 197-211.
    9. Martin Brown & Nicole Hentschel & Hannes Mettler & Helmut Stix, 2020. "Financial Innovation, Payment Choice and Cash Demand – Causal Evidence from the Staggered Introduction of Contactless Debit Cards," Working Papers 230, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank).
    10. Joanna Stavins, 2017. "How do consumers make their payment choices?," Research Data Report 17-1, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
    11. McCallum, Bennett T. & Nelson, Edward, 2010. "Money and Inflation: Some Critical Issues," Handbook of Monetary Economics, in: Benjamin M. Friedman & Michael Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Monetary Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 3, pages 97-153, Elsevier.
    12. Kosse, Anneke, 2013. "Do newspaper articles on card fraud affect debit card usage?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(12), pages 5382-5391.
    13. Andreas M. Fischer & Lucca Zachmann, 2020. "Do the rich pay their taxes early?," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 27(1), pages 194-214, February.
    14. Ulf Von Kalckreuth & Tobias Schmidt & Helmut Stix, 2014. "Using Cash to Monitor Liquidity: Implications for Payments, Currency Demand, and Withdrawal Behavior," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 46(8), pages 1753-1786, December.
    15. Kosse, Anneke & Jansen, David-Jan, 2013. "Choosing how to pay: The influence of foreign backgrounds," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 989-998.
    16. Charles M. Kahn & José M. Liñares-Zegarra, 2016. "Identity Theft and Consumer Payment Choice: Does Security Really Matter?," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 50(1), pages 121-159, August.
    17. Laine, Liisa T. & Ma, Ching-to Albert, 2017. "Quality and competition between public and private firms," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 140(C), pages 336-353.
    18. Jan Marc Berk, 2002. "Banca centrale e innovazione finanziaria. Una rassegna della letteratura recente," Moneta e Credito, Economia civile, vol. 55(220), pages 345-385.
    19. Bar-Ilan, Avner & Marion, Nancy, 2013. "Demand for cash with intra-period endogenous consumption," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(12), pages 2668-2678.
    20. Thornton, Daniel L., 2014. "Monetary policy: Why money matters (and interest rates don’t)," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 202-213.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Currency demand; Demographics; Denominations;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E41 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Demand for Money
    • C31 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Cross-Sectional Models; Spatial Models; Treatment Effect Models; Quantile Regressions; Social Interaction Models
    • C36 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Instrumental Variables (IV) Estimation

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:empeco:v:57:y:2019:i:4:d:10.1007_s00181-018-1486-8. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: . General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.