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Seasonal adjustment, demography, and GDP growth

Author

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  • Geoffrey R. Dunbar

Abstract

Seasonal adjustment removes the predictable seasonal variation in GDP. If there is seasonal variation in factor inputs, then seasonal adjustment factors may be correlated with those inputs. This correlation can obscure statistically the importance of those inputs for GDP. This effect is apparent for the demographic composition of the labour force for Canada. Seasonal adjustment also changes the timeseries properties of GDP. Accounting for the seasonal pattern and trend change in demography suggests that the period of reduced volatility in GDP growth for Canada, the Great Moderation, can be traced to the changing demographic structure of the labour force.

Suggested Citation

  • Geoffrey R. Dunbar, 2013. "Seasonal adjustment, demography, and GDP growth," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 46(3), pages 811-835, August.
  • Handle: RePEc:cje:issued:v:46:y:2013:i:3:p:811-835
    DOI: 10.1111/caje.12040
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    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1111/caje.12040
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    Cited by:

    1. Geoffrey R. Dunbar, 2014. "Demographics and the Demand for Currency," Staff Working Papers 14-59, Bank of Canada.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • O47 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence
    • E01 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General - - - Measurement and Data on National Income and Product Accounts and Wealth; Environmental Accounts
    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
    • C82 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs - - - Methodology for Collecting, Estimating, and Organizing Macroeconomic Data; Data Access

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