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Early warnings of inflation in India

  • Bhattacharya, Rudrani

    ()

    (National Institute of Public Finance and Policy)

  • Patnaik, Ila

    ()

    (National Institute of Public Finance and Policy)

  • Shah, Ajay

    ()

    (National Institute of Public Finance and Policy)

In India, year-on-year percentage changes of price indexes are widely used as the measure of inflation. In terms of monthly data, each observation of a one-year change in inflation is the sum of twelve one month changes. This suggests that better information about inflationary pressures can be obtained using point-on-point monthly changes. This requires seasonal adjustment. We apply standard seasonal adjustment procedures in order to obtain a point-on-point seasonally adjusted monthly time-series of inflation in India. In three interesting high inflation episodes { 1994-95, 2007 and 2008 - we find that this data yields a faster and better understanding of inflationary pressures.

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File URL: http://www.nipfp.org.in/working_paper/wp_2008_54.pdf
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Paper provided by National Institute of Public Finance and Policy in its series Working Papers with number 08/54.

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Length: 24
Date of creation: Aug 2008
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:npf:wpaper:08/54
Note: Working Paper 54, 2008
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.nipfp.org.in

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