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Seasonal adjustment of Indian macroeconomic time-series

Author

Listed:
  • Bhattacharya, Rudrani

    (National Institute of Public Finance and Policy)

  • Pandey, Radhika

    (National Institute of Public Finance and Policy)

  • Patnaik, Ila

    (National Institute of Public Finance and Policy)

  • Shah, Ajay

    (National Institute of Public Finance and Policy)

Abstract

Macroeconomic analysis benefits from seasonal adjustment. Month- on-month changes of economic time series yield faster information about developments in the economy, but the values have exaggerated variance when annual seasonality is present. In this paper, we show the full process for seasonal adjustment for four important Indian time-series. We find that significant reductions of variance are obtained by using black box seasonal adjustment, at the risk of failure for some time series. Thorough knowledge about seasonal adjustment yields more reliable answers, and a roughly 15% improvement in the volatility of month-on-month changes.

Suggested Citation

  • Bhattacharya, Rudrani & Pandey, Radhika & Patnaik, Ila & Shah, Ajay, 2016. "Seasonal adjustment of Indian macroeconomic time-series," Working Papers 16/160, National Institute of Public Finance and Policy.
    • Handle: RePEc:npf:wpaper:16/160
    Note: Working Paper 160, 2016
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Radhika Pandey & Ila Patnaik & Ajay Shah, 2019. "Business Cycle Measurement in India," Societies and Political Orders in Transition, in: Sergey Smirnov & Ataman Ozyildirim & Paulo Picchetti (ed.), Business Cycles in BRICS, pages 121-152, Springer.
    2. Pandey, Radhika & Patnaik, Ila & Shah, Ajay, 2019. "Measuring business cycle conditions in India," Working Papers 19/269, National Institute of Public Finance and Policy.

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