IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/aah/aarhec/2004-1.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Seasonal Unit Root Testing Based on the Temporal Aggregation of Seasonal Cycles

Author

Listed:
  • Gabriel Pons Rotger

    () (Department of Economics, University of Aarhus, Denmark)

Abstract

The effects of systematic sampling and temporal aggregation on the seasonal cycle model (see Miron, 1993) and the seasonally integrated process (see Hylleberg et al., 1990) are discussed. The temporal aggregation theory is used to improve the sequential test for monthly seasonal unit roots of Rodrigues and Franses (2003). It is shown by simulation that the monthly sequential test has better finite sample properties than the BM test (see Beaulieu and Miron, 1993). The new test is applied to monthly US Industrial Production and, contrary to the BM test, rejects the presence of any seasonal unit root.

Suggested Citation

  • Gabriel Pons Rotger, 2004. "Seasonal Unit Root Testing Based on the Temporal Aggregation of Seasonal Cycles," Economics Working Papers 2004-1, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
  • Handle: RePEc:aah:aarhec:2004-1
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: ftp://ftp.econ.au.dk/afn/wp/04/wp04_01.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Philip Hans Franses & Timothy J. Vogelsang, 1998. "On Seasonal Cycles, Unit Roots, And Mean Shifts," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 80(2), pages 231-240, May.
    2. Granger, C. W. J. & Siklos, Pierre L., 1995. "Systematic sampling, temporal aggregation, seasonal adjustment, and cointegration theory and evidence," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 66(1-2), pages 357-369.
    3. Franses, Philip Hans, 1991. "Moving average filters and unit roots," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 37(4), pages 399-403, December.
    4. Canova, Fabio & Hansen, Bruce E, 1995. "Are Seasonal Patterns Constant over Time? A Test for Seasonal Stability," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 13(3), pages 237-252, July.
    5. Paulo Rodrigues & Philip Hans Franses, 2005. "A sequential approach to testing seasonal unit roots in high frequency data," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(6), pages 555-569.
    6. Franses, Philip Hans, 1994. "A multivariate approach to modeling univariate seasonal time series," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 63(1), pages 133-151, July.
    7. Hylleberg, S. & Engle, R. F. & Granger, C. W. J. & Yoo, B. S., 1990. "Seasonal integration and cointegration," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 44(1-2), pages 215-238.
    8. Paulo Rodrigues & Denise Osborn, 1999. "Performance of seasonal unit root tests for monthly data," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 26(8), pages 985-1004.
    9. Jeffrey A. Miron, 1996. "The Economics of Seasonal Cycles," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262133237, January.
    10. Hansen, Bruce E., 1992. "Testing for parameter instability in linear models," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 14(4), pages 517-533, August.
    11. Taylor, A M Robert, 2003. "Robust Stationarity Tests in Seasonal Time Series Processes," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 21(1), pages 156-163, January.
    12. Philip Hans Franses & Bart Hobijn, 1997. "Critical values for unit root tests in seasonal time series," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(1), pages 25-48.
    13. Joseph Beaulieu, J. & Miron, Jeffrey A., 1993. "Seasonal unit roots in aggregate U.S. data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 55(1-2), pages 305-328.
    14. H. Niemi, 1984. "The invertibility of sampled and aggregated ARMA models," Metrika: International Journal for Theoretical and Applied Statistics, Springer, vol. 31(1), pages 43-50, December.
    15. Caner, Mehmet, 1998. "A Locally Optimal Seaosnal Unit-Root Test," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 16(3), pages 349-356, July.
    16. Hannan, E J & Terrell, R D & Tuckwell, N E, 1970. "The Seasonal Adjustment of Economic Time Series," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 11(1), pages 24-52, February.
    17. Franses, Philip Hans, 1996. "Periodicity and Stochastic Trends in Economic Time Series," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198774549.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Temporal aggregation; seasonal unit roots; sequential test;

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C43 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Index Numbers and Aggregation
    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:aah:aarhec:2004-1. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (). General contact details of provider: http://www.econ.au.dk/afn/ .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.