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Measurement Errors and Outliers in Seasonal Unit Root Testing

  • Niels Haldrup
  • Antonio Montanés
  • Andreu Sanso

    ()

    (Department of Economics, University of Aarhus, Denmark)

Frequently, seasonal and non-seasonal data (especially macro time series) are observed with noise. For instance, the time series can have irregular abrupt changes and interruptions following as a result of additive or temporary change outliers caused by external circumstances which are irrelevant for the series of interest. Equally, the time series can have measurement errors. In this paper we analyse the above types of data irregularities on the behaviour of seasonal unit root tests. It occurs that in most cases outliers and measurement errors can seriously affect inference towards the rejection of seasonal unit roots. It is shown how the distortion of the tests will depend upon the frequency, magnitude, and persistence of the outliers as well as on the signal to noise ratio associated with measurement errors. Some solutions to the implied inference problems are suggested.

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Paper provided by School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus in its series Economics Working Papers with number 2000-8.

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Handle: RePEc:aah:aarhec:2000-8
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