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Bootstrapping the HEGY seasonal unit root tests

  • Burridge, Peter
  • Robert Taylor, A. M.

This paper proposes bootstrap versions of the seasonal unit root tests of, inter alia, Hylleberg, Engle, Granger and Yoo (1990,Journal of Econometrics 55, 305-328)[HEGY]. We report a simulation study of the properties of both the conventional and bootstrapped seasonal unit root tests when applied to series having higher-order serial correlation and/or periodic heteroscedasticity, both of which are known to severely distort the significance level of the conventional tests. Our results demonstrate that the bootstrap provides good approximations to the statistics' null distributions. Moreover, the bootstrap corrects the adverse effects of data-dependent lag selection seen in the conventional augmented HEGY tests. The bootstrapped tests have comparable power to (infeasible) exactly significance-level-corrected lag-augmented HEGY tests, and their use is recommended

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Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Econometrics.

Volume (Year): 123 (2004)
Issue (Month): 1 (November)
Pages: 67-87

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Handle: RePEc:eee:econom:v:123:y:2004:i:1:p:67-87
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jeconom

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  1. Richard Smith & Robert Taylor, . "Additional Critical Values and Asymptotic Representations for Seasonal Unit Root Tests," Discussion Papers 95/43, Department of Economics, University of York.
  2. Atsushi Inoue & Lutz Kilian, 2000. "Bootstrapping Autoregressive Processes with Possible Unit Roots," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 0401, Econometric Society.
  3. Nankervis, John C & Savin, N E, 1996. "The Level and Power of the Bootstrap t Test in the AR(1) Model with Trend," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 14(2), pages 161-68, April.
  4. Burridge, Peter & Taylor, A M Robert, 2001. "On the Properties of Regression-Based Tests for Seasonal Unit Roots in the Presence of Higher-Order Serial Correlation," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 19(3), pages 374-79, July.
  5. Ghysels, Eric & Lee, Hahn S. & Noh, Jaesum, 1994. "Testing for unit roots in seasonal time series : Some theoretical extensions and a Monte Carlo investigation," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 62(2), pages 415-442, June.
  6. Smith, R.J. & Taylor, A.M.R., 1999. "Regression-Based Seasonal Unit Root Tests," Discussion Papers 99-15, Department of Economics, University of Birmingham.
  7. Davidson, Russell & MacKinnon, James G., 2002. "Bootstrap J tests of nonnested linear regression models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 109(1), pages 167-193, July.
  8. Ghysels, E. & Hall, A. & Lee, H.S., 1995. "On Periodic Structures and Testing for Seasonal Unit Roots," Cahiers de recherche 9518, Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en économie quantitative, CIREQ.
  9. Taylor, A. M. Robert, 1997. "On the practical problems of computing seasonal unit root tests," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 13(3), pages 307-318, September.
  10. Donald W. K. Andrews & Moshe Buchinsky, 2000. "A Three-Step Method for Choosing the Number of Bootstrap Repetitions," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 68(1), pages 23-52, January.
  11. Hylleberg, S. & Engle, R.F. & Granger, C.W.J. & Yoo, B.S., 1988. "Seasonal, Integration And Cointegration," Papers 6-88-2, Pennsylvania State - Department of Economics.
  12. J. Joseph Beaulieu & Jeffrey A. Miron, 1992. "Seasonal Unit Roots in Aggregate U.S. Data," NBER Technical Working Papers 0126, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  13. Horowitz, Joel L. & Savin, N. E., 2000. "Empirically relevant critical values for hypothesis tests: A bootstrap approach," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 95(2), pages 375-389, April.
  14. Russell Davidson & James MacKinnon, 2000. "Bootstrap tests: how many bootstraps?," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(1), pages 55-68.
  15. Peter C.B. Phillips, 2001. "Bootstrapping Spurious Regression," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1330, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  16. Psaradakis, Zacharias, 2000. "Bootstrap tests for unit roots in seasonal autoregressive models," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 50(4), pages 389-395, December.
  17. Park, Joon Y., 2002. "An Invariance Principle For Sieve Bootstrap In Time Series," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 18(02), pages 469-490, April.
  18. Burridge, P. & Taylor, A.M.R., 1999. "On Regression-Based Tests for Seasonal Unit Roots in the Presence of Periodic Heteroscedasticity," Discussion Papers 99-10, Department of Economics, University of Birmingham.
  19. Rayner, Robert K, 1990. "Bootstrapping p Values and Power in the First-Order Autoregression: A Monte Carlo Investigation," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 8(2), pages 251-63, April.
  20. Russell Davidson & James MacKinnon, 2002. "Fast Double Bootstrap Tests Of Nonnested Linear Regression Models," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(4), pages 419-429.
  21. Andrews, Donald W. K. & Buchinsky, Moshe, 2001. "Evaluation of a three-step method for choosing the number of bootstrap repetitions," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 103(1-2), pages 345-386, July.
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