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The time series behaviour of Brazilian inflation rate: new evidence from unit root tests with good size and power

  • Gawon Yoon
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    Various unit roots tests are suggested over the years. However, many of them suffer severe size problems as well as low power. Recently, Ng and Perron (Econometrica, 69, 1519-1554, 2001) propose new modelling strategy that yields good power and reliable size. This letter applies their testing method to the Brazilian inflation rate, which is contaminated by various government interventions to bring hyperinflation under control and for which standard unit root tests produce unintuitive results. The new method is found to yield reliable results for the current data and a possible explanation is also provided for its performance.

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    Article provided by Taylor & Francis Journals in its journal Applied Economics Letters.

    Volume (Year): 10 (2003)
    Issue (Month): 10 ()
    Pages: 627-631

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    Handle: RePEc:taf:apeclt:v:10:y:2003:i:10:p:627-631
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    1. Perron, P, 1988. "The Great Crash, The Oil Price Shock And The Unit Root Hypothesis," Papers 338, Princeton, Department of Economics - Econometric Research Program.
    2. Franses, Philip Hans & Haldrup, Niels, 1994. "The Effects of Additive Outliers on Tests for Unit Roots and Cointegration," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 12(4), pages 471-78, October.
    3. Serena Ng & Pierre Perron, 2002. "PPP May not Hold Afterall: A Further Investigation," CEMA Working Papers 83, China Economics and Management Academy, Central University of Finance and Economics.
    4. PERRON, Pierre & RODRIGUEZ, Gabriel, 1998. "GLS Detrending, Efficient Unit Root Tests and Structural Change," Cahiers de recherche 9809, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
    5. Peter C.B. Phillips & Zhijie Xiao, 1998. "A Primer on Unit Root Testing," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1189, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    6. Perron, Pierre & Ng, Serena, 1996. "Useful Modifications to Some Unit Root Tests with Dependent Errors and Their Local Asymptotic Properties," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 63(3), pages 435-63, July.
    7. Peter C.B. Phillips, 1985. "Time Series Regression with a Unit Root," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 740R, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, revised Feb 1986.
    8. Serena Ng & Pierre Perron, 1997. "Lag Length Selection and the Construction of Unit Root Tests with Good Size and Power," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 369, Boston College Department of Economics, revised 01 Sep 2000.
    9. Bhargava, Alok, 1986. "On the Theory of Testing for Unit Roots in Observed Time Series," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 53(3), pages 369-84, July.
    10. Graham Elliott & Thomas J. Rothenberg & James H. Stock, 1992. "Efficient Tests for an Autoregressive Unit Root," NBER Technical Working Papers 0130, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Ng, S. & Perron, P., 1994. "Unit Root Tests ARMA Models with Data Dependent Methods for the Selection of the Truncation Lag," Cahiers de recherche 9423, Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en ├ęconomie quantitative, CIREQ.
    12. Sargan, John Denis & Bhargava, Alok, 1983. "Testing Residuals from Least Squares Regression for Being Generated by the Gaussian Random Walk," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 51(1), pages 153-74, January.
    13. Rapach, David E. & Weber, Christian E., 2004. "Are real interest rates really nonstationary? New evidence from tests with good size and power," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 409-430, September.
    14. Cati, Regina Celia & Garcia, Marcio G P & Perron, Pierre, 1999. "Unit Roots in the Presence of Abrupt Governmental Interventions with an Application to Brazilian Data," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 14(1), pages 27-56, Jan.-Feb..
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