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Credit constraints, productivity shocks and consumption volatility in emerging economies

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  • Bhattacharya, Rudrani

    () (National Institute of Public Finance and Policy)

  • Patnaik, Ila

    () (National Institute of Public Finance and Policy)

Abstract

How does access to credit impact consumption volatility? Theory and evidence from advanced economies suggests that greater household access to finance smooths consumption. Evidence from emerging markets, where consumption is usually more volatile than income, indicates that financial reform further increases the volatility of consumption relative to output. We address this puzzle in the framework of an emerging economy model in which households face shocks to trend growth rate, and a fraction of them are credit constrained. Unconstrained households can respond to shocks to trend growth by raising current consumption more than rise in current income. Financial reform increases the share of such households, leading to greater relative consumption volatility. Calibration of the model for pre and post financial reform in India provides support for the model's key predictions.

Suggested Citation

  • Bhattacharya, Rudrani & Patnaik, Ila, 2013. "Credit constraints, productivity shocks and consumption volatility in emerging economies," Working Papers 13/121, National Institute of Public Finance and Policy.
  • Handle: RePEc:npf:wpaper:13/121
    Note: Working Paper 121, 2013
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Parantap Basu & Shesadri Banerjee, 2015. "Effect of Quantitative Easing on the Indian Economy: A Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Perspective," CEGAP Working Papers 2015_03, Durham University Business School.
    2. Parantap Basu & Shesadri Banerjee, 2015. "Role of IST and TFP Shocks in Business Cycle Fluctuations: The Case of India," CEGAP Working Papers 2015_04, Durham University Business School.
    3. Lathaporn Ratanavararak, 2018. "The Impact of Imperfect Financial Integration and Trade on Macroeconomic Volatility and Welfare in Emerging Markets," PIER Discussion Papers 79, Puey Ungphakorn Institute for Economic Research, revised Jan 2018.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Macroeconomics ; Real business cycles ; Emerging market business cycle stylized facts ; Financial development;

    JEL classification:

    • E10 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - General
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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