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Financial Inclusion, Productivity Shocks, and Consumption Volatility in Emerging Economies

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  • Rudrani Bhattacharya
  • Ila Patnaik

Abstract

How does access to finance impact consumption volatility? Theory and evidence from advanced economies suggests that greater household access to finance smooths consumption. Evidence from emerging markets, where consumption is usually more volatile than income, indicates that financial reform further increases the volatility of consumption relative to output. This puzzle is addressed in the framework of an emerging economy model in which households face shocks to trend growth rate, and a fraction of them are financially constrained, with no access to financial services. Unconstrained households can respond to shocks to trend growth by raising current consumption more than the rise in current income. Financial reform increases the share of such households, leading to greater relative consumption volatility. Calibration of the model for pre- and post–financial reform in India provides support for the model's key predictions.

Suggested Citation

  • Rudrani Bhattacharya & Ila Patnaik, 2016. "Financial Inclusion, Productivity Shocks, and Consumption Volatility in Emerging Economies," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 30(1), pages 171-201.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:wbecrv:v:30:y:2016:i:1:p:171-201.
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1093/wber/lhv029
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    Cited by:

    1. Taylor, Daniel & Osei-Tutu, Francis & Awuye, Isaac S., 2024. "The role of accounting standards in financial inclusion," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 96(PA).
    2. Ghate, Chetan & Gopalakrishnan, Pawan & Saha, Anuradha, 2025. "The Great Indian Savings Puzzle," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 150(C).
    3. Mohimont, Jolan, 2022. "Welfare effects of business cycles and monetary policies in a small open emerging economy," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 136(C).
    4. Barrail, Zulma, 2020. "Business cycle implications of rising household credit market participation in emerging countries," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 116(C).
    5. Tufail Saira & Aljarallah Ruba & Munir Madiha & Alvi Shahzad & Ul Hassan Mehboob, 2025. "Financial Inclusion, Financial Depth, and Macroeconomic Fluctuations," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment Journal, De Gruyter, vol. 19(1), pages 1-23.
    6. Brendan Epstein & Alan Finkelstein Shapiro, 2021. "Increasing Domestic Financial Participation: Implications for Business Cycles and Labor Markets," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 39, pages 128-145, January.
    7. Wei Jiang & Yanhui Hu & Hongjie Cao, 2024. "Does Digital Financial Inclusion Increase the Household Consumption? Evidence from China," Journal of the Knowledge Economy, Springer;Portland International Center for Management of Engineering and Technology (PICMET), vol. 15(4), pages 17333-17364, December.
    8. Compaoré, Ali, 2022. "Access-for-all to financial services: Non-resources tax revenue-harnessing opportunities in developing countries," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 236-245.
    9. Cyn-Young Park & Rogelio Mercado, Jr., 2018. "Financial Inclusion: New Measurement and Cross-Country Impact Assessment," ADB Economics Working Paper Series 539, Asian Development Bank.
    10. Ali Compaore, 2020. "Access-for-all to Financial Services: Non- resources Tax Revenue-harnessing Opportunities in Developing Countries," Working Papers hal-02901664, HAL.

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