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Stylized Facts for Business Cycles in Turkey

Author

Listed:
  • Harun Alp
  • Yusuf Soner Baskaya
  • Mustafa Kilinc
  • Canan Yuksel

Abstract

This study documents the stylized facts about the business cycles in Turkey using quarterly data between 1987 and 2009. In particular, we document the business cycle turning points and average duration of cycles for Turkey, as well as the optimal smoothing parameter for Hodrick-Prescott (HP) filter estimated in line with our estimate of average business cycle duration for 1987-2009 period, 20 quarters, which is shorter compared to developed countries, and comparable to other developing countries. For filtering procedure, we use this estimated parameter, in addition to 1600, in HP filter and compare our findings. We find that business cycle relationships between macroeconomic variables in Turkey are mostly in accordance with the patterns observed for developing countries, which significantly differ from developed countries� business cycle facts. In particular, the real side of the economy is characterized by high volatility of consumption and a countercyclical pattern for net exports. Other important findings are that financial variables such as credit or sovereign spreads are very volatile and strongly correlated with output. In addition, the results show that the properties of the relationship between economic activity, prices and the interest rates differs between pre-2001 and post-2001 period, whereas the relationship among the real variables shows a smaller change between these periods.

Suggested Citation

  • Harun Alp & Yusuf Soner Baskaya & Mustafa Kilinc & Canan Yuksel, 2012. "Stylized Facts for Business Cycles in Turkey," Working Papers 1202, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
  • Handle: RePEc:tcb:wpaper:1202
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    Blog mentions

    As found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
    1. Dating the Indian business cycle
      by Ajay Shah in Ajay Shah's blog on 2016-09-07 15:06:00

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    Cited by:

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    2. Sergey V. Smirnov & Nikolay V. Kondrashov & Anna V. Petronevich, 2017. "Dating Cyclical Turning Points for Russia: Formal Methods and Informal Choices," Journal of Business Cycle Research, Springer;Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET), vol. 13(1), pages 53-73, May.
    3. Bhattacharya, Rudrani & Patnaik, Ila, 2013. "Credit constraints, productivity shocks and consumption volatility in emerging economies," Working Papers 13/121, National Institute of Public Finance and Policy.
    4. Mitra, Shalini, 2013. "Informality, financial development and macroeconomic volatility," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 120(3), pages 454-457.
    5. Yusuf Soner Baskaya & Gonul Sengul, 2012. "Turkiye’de Emek Piyasasinin Cevrimsel Hareketinin Cinsiyet Bazinda Analizi," CBT Research Notes in Economics 1209, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
    6. Ghate, Chetan & Pandey, Radhika & Patnaik, Ila, 2013. "Has India emerged? Business cycle stylized facts from a transitioning economy," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 157-172.
    7. Rudrani Bhattacharya & Ila Patnaik, 2016. "Financial Inclusion, Productivity Shocks, and Consumption Volatility in Emerging Economies," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 30(1), pages 171-201.
    8. Harun Alp & Yusuf Soner Baskaya & Mustafa Kilinc & Canan Yuksel, 2011. "Turkiye Icin Hodrick-Prescott Filtresi Duzgunlestirme Parametresi Tahmini," CBT Research Notes in Economics 1103, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
    9. Emel Siklar & Ilyas Siklar, 2021. "Measuring and Analyzing the Common and Idiosyncratic Cycles: An Application for Turkish Manufacturing Industry," Business and Economic Research, Macrothink Institute, vol. 11(2), pages 279-300, June.
    10. Rudrani Bhattacharya & Ila Patnaik, 2013. "Credit Constraints, Productivity Shocks and Consumption Volatility in Emerging Economies," IMF Working Papers 2013/120, International Monetary Fund.
    11. Seçil A Kaya Bahçe & Emel Memiş, 2014. "The impact of the economic crisis on joblessness in Turkey," The Economic and Labour Relations Review, , vol. 25(1), pages 130-153, March.
    12. Ali Culha, 2012. "Turkiye’de Vergi Gelirlerinin Iktisadi Dongulere Duyarliligi," CBT Research Notes in Economics 1234, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Nominal Business Cycle Facts; Real Business Cycle Facts; Turkish Economy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E1 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models
    • E3 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
    • E5 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit

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