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Measuring Business Cycles: The Real Business Cycle Approach and Related Controversies

  • Celsa Machado

    ()

    (Instituto Superior de Contabilidade e Administração do Porto and Faculdade de Economia do Porto)

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    This paper presents and discusses the business cycles measurement carried out by the real business cycle (RBC) approach. It shows how the controversy lodges within and outside the RBC frontiers. It also shows how the methodological debate that took place in the 1940s about the relationship between theory and measurement, is revived in modern discussions of business cycles measurement. The paper concludes that this relationship still raises fierce contention.

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    File URL: http://www.fep.up.pt/investigacao/workingpapers/wp107.pdf
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    Paper provided by Universidade do Porto, Faculdade de Economia do Porto in its series FEP Working Papers with number 107.

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    Length: 18 pages
    Date of creation: May 2001
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:por:fepwps:107
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    1. Lawrence J. Cristiano & Terry J. Fitzgerald, 1998. "The business cycle: it's still a puzzle," Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, issue Q IV, pages 56-83.
    2. Finn E. Kydland & Edward C. Prescott, 1996. "The Computational Experiment: An Econometric Tool," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 10(1), pages 69-85, Winter.
    3. Edward C. Prescott, 1986. "Theory ahead of business cycle measurement," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Fall, pages 9-22.
    4. Robert G. King & Sergio T. Rebelo, 2000. "Resuscitating Real Business Cycles," NBER Working Papers 7534, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Don Harding & Adrian Pagan, 2000. "Disecting the Cycle: A Methodological Investigation," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 1164, Econometric Society.
    6. Bennett T. McCallum, 2002. "Recent developments in monetary policy analysis: the roles of theory and evidence," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue Win, pages 67-96.
    7. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1998. "Business Cycle Fluctuations in U.S. Macroeconomic Time Series," NBER Working Papers 6528, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Canova, Fabio, 1998. "Detrending and business cycle facts: A user's guide," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(3), pages 533-540, May.
    9. Marianne Baxter & Robert G. King, 1995. "Measuring Business Cycles Approximate Band-Pass Filters for Economic Time Series," NBER Working Papers 5022, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Canova, Fabio, 1994. "Statistical Inference in Calibrated Models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 9(S), pages S123-44, Suppl. De.
    11. Don Harding & Adrian Pagan, 1999. "Knowing the Cycle," Melbourne Institute Working Paper Series wp1999n12, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, The University of Melbourne.
    12. Hoover, Kevin D, 1995. "Facts and Artifacts: Calibration and the Empirical Assessment of Real-Business-Cycle Models," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 47(1), pages 24-44, January.
    13. Canova, Fabio, 1993. "Detrending and Business Cycle Facts," CEPR Discussion Papers 782, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    14. Gerhard Bry & Charlotte Boschan, 1971. "Cyclical Analysis of Time Series: Selected Procedures and Computer Programs," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number bry_71-1, June.
    15. Christopher A. Sims, 1996. "Macroeconomics and Methodology," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 10(1), pages 105-120, Winter.
    16. Robert J. Hodrick & Edward Prescott, 1981. "Post-War U.S. Business Cycles: An Empirical Investigation," Discussion Papers 451, Northwestern University, Center for Mathematical Studies in Economics and Management Science.
    17. Singleton, Kenneth J., 1988. "Econometric issues in the analysis of equilibrium business cycle models," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(2-3), pages 361-386.
    18. Harvey, A C & Jaeger, A, 1993. "Detrending, Stylized Facts and the Business Cycle," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 8(3), pages 231-47, July-Sept.
    19. Lucas, Robert E., 1977. "Understanding business cycles," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 5(1), pages 7-29, January.
    20. Burnside, Craig, 1998. "Detrending and business cycle facts: A comment," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(3), pages 513-532, May.
    21. Fabio Canova, 1994. "Does detrending matter for the determination of the reference cycle and the selection of turning points?," Economics Working Papers 113, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Mar 1995.
    22. Kydland, Finn E & Prescott, Edward C, 1982. "Time to Build and Aggregate Fluctuations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(6), pages 1345-70, November.
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